for 2014 on global economic outlook. This was reported in the Wall street Journal and here's the link:
http://online.wsj.com/articles/iea-lowe ... 1407831090
I guess we'll no longer be using oil. I would like to hear your thoughts.
IEA has lowered the oil demand growth forecast
Re: IEA has lowered the oil demand growth forecast
here's another article---I think headlines for wsj article should read rate of growth slows but demand is going higher.
jim
IEA raises call on OPEC crude oil for rest of 2014, 2015
London (Platts)--12Aug2014/737 am EDT/1137 GMT
The International Energy Agency said Tuesday it sees a need for more OPEC crude on the global market for the remainder of 2014 and in 2015 than it previously forecast despite global demand growth being curtailed.
In its latest monthly oil report, the IEA raised the "call" on OPEC by a combined 400,000 b/d for the third and fourth quarters to 30.8 million b/d.
This compares to previous forecasts of 30.7 and 30.5 million b/d, respectively.
For 2015, the call has been raised by 100,000 b/d to 29.9 million b/d.
OPEC provided the lion's share of the world's output growth in July, rising by 300,000 b/d to 30.44 million b/d, the IEA said.
"Global supply was up 230,000 b/d in July to 93 million b/d, with higher OPEC output offsetting slightly lower non-OPEC supply," the IEA said.
July 2014 non-OPEC production fell by 170,000 b/d month on month to 56.2 million b/d, on declines in Brazil, Mexico and Russia, as well as attacks that took down output in Colombia and Yemen, the IEA said.
The IEA did warn, though, that there was still an "ominous" gathering of geopolitical clouds in OPEC countries, pointing to events in Libya, Iraq and Ukraine.
"While the situation across these key producer countries remains more at risk than ever, the market appears confident that OPEC can deliver the production increase needed from it to meet rising demand expected in the second half of the year," it said.
OPEC's crude supply in July hit a five-month high, as a boost from Saudi Arabia to 10 million b/d and a tentative recovery in Libyan output more than offset losses in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria, the IEA said.
Saudi Arabia's output was the highest rate since September 2013.
"Production rose 230,000 b/d from June levels partly due to increased domestic consumption," it said.
Riyadh typically boosts supply in the summer to meet higher domestic demand for crude to fuel power plants.
Saudi supplies to the market, which include sales from storage, were reported at 9.66 million b/d in July versus 9.75 million b/d in June.
DEMAND GROWTH
With the market well supplied -- with an oil glut even reported in the Atlantic basin -- much attention has been focused on future demand growth.
The IEA said Tuesday it had cut its global oil demand growth forecast by around 300,000 b/d from its previous monthly report to 1 million b/d.
The IEA said there were two "key, somewhat related" factors that prompted it to revise down its demand growth estimates.
"Firstly, demand growth in Q2, at 700,000 b/d, fell to its lowest level since Q1 2012. Secondly, the global macroeconomic outlook has been downgraded, with the International Monetary Fund taking three-tenths of a percentage point off its 2014 global GDP growth forecast, to 3.4%," it said.
The agency also sees lower demand growth in Russia as "additional sanctions trigger weaker economic activity dampening future oil use."
It said the Russian oil demand growth forecast for 2014 has been reduced to 1.3% from the previous 1.9% estimate.
Projected growth rates of gasoline, gasoil and other products were all reduced on lower likely economic outlook.
Similar curtailments are forecast for 2015, the IEA said.
The IEA also said that OECD industry stocks posted their sixth consecutive monthly build in June, rising 13.8 million barrels to stand at 2.671 billion barrels at the end of the month, their highest level since September 2013.
jim
IEA raises call on OPEC crude oil for rest of 2014, 2015
London (Platts)--12Aug2014/737 am EDT/1137 GMT
The International Energy Agency said Tuesday it sees a need for more OPEC crude on the global market for the remainder of 2014 and in 2015 than it previously forecast despite global demand growth being curtailed.
In its latest monthly oil report, the IEA raised the "call" on OPEC by a combined 400,000 b/d for the third and fourth quarters to 30.8 million b/d.
This compares to previous forecasts of 30.7 and 30.5 million b/d, respectively.
For 2015, the call has been raised by 100,000 b/d to 29.9 million b/d.
OPEC provided the lion's share of the world's output growth in July, rising by 300,000 b/d to 30.44 million b/d, the IEA said.
"Global supply was up 230,000 b/d in July to 93 million b/d, with higher OPEC output offsetting slightly lower non-OPEC supply," the IEA said.
July 2014 non-OPEC production fell by 170,000 b/d month on month to 56.2 million b/d, on declines in Brazil, Mexico and Russia, as well as attacks that took down output in Colombia and Yemen, the IEA said.
The IEA did warn, though, that there was still an "ominous" gathering of geopolitical clouds in OPEC countries, pointing to events in Libya, Iraq and Ukraine.
"While the situation across these key producer countries remains more at risk than ever, the market appears confident that OPEC can deliver the production increase needed from it to meet rising demand expected in the second half of the year," it said.
OPEC's crude supply in July hit a five-month high, as a boost from Saudi Arabia to 10 million b/d and a tentative recovery in Libyan output more than offset losses in Iraq, Iran and Nigeria, the IEA said.
Saudi Arabia's output was the highest rate since September 2013.
"Production rose 230,000 b/d from June levels partly due to increased domestic consumption," it said.
Riyadh typically boosts supply in the summer to meet higher domestic demand for crude to fuel power plants.
Saudi supplies to the market, which include sales from storage, were reported at 9.66 million b/d in July versus 9.75 million b/d in June.
DEMAND GROWTH
With the market well supplied -- with an oil glut even reported in the Atlantic basin -- much attention has been focused on future demand growth.
The IEA said Tuesday it had cut its global oil demand growth forecast by around 300,000 b/d from its previous monthly report to 1 million b/d.
The IEA said there were two "key, somewhat related" factors that prompted it to revise down its demand growth estimates.
"Firstly, demand growth in Q2, at 700,000 b/d, fell to its lowest level since Q1 2012. Secondly, the global macroeconomic outlook has been downgraded, with the International Monetary Fund taking three-tenths of a percentage point off its 2014 global GDP growth forecast, to 3.4%," it said.
The agency also sees lower demand growth in Russia as "additional sanctions trigger weaker economic activity dampening future oil use."
It said the Russian oil demand growth forecast for 2014 has been reduced to 1.3% from the previous 1.9% estimate.
Projected growth rates of gasoline, gasoil and other products were all reduced on lower likely economic outlook.
Similar curtailments are forecast for 2015, the IEA said.
The IEA also said that OECD industry stocks posted their sixth consecutive monthly build in June, rising 13.8 million barrels to stand at 2.671 billion barrels at the end of the month, their highest level since September 2013.
Re: IEA has lowered the oil demand growth forecast
another thought about a forecast of growth rate----
it is one thing to estimate (guess) absolute growth, but its actually a second order guess to attempt to estimate the rate. I place little credence in the effort. all fwiw---
it is one thing to estimate (guess) absolute growth, but its actually a second order guess to attempt to estimate the rate. I place little credence in the effort. all fwiw---