Energy Prospectus

Cimarex Energy (XEC): An updated profile and forecast have been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.

My Fair Value Estimate is now $190.50/share. Cimarex now has 20% to 25% annual production growth locked in for at least the next three years.

They are currently drilling an important test well in Oklahoma that is targeting the Meramec formation. If successful, this could prove up more acreage for Gastar Exploration (GST) and Newfield Exploration (NFX). It is close to Continental Resources (CLR) SCOOP play. GST actually has a small working interest in the well.

Check out the new presentation on the NFX website. See slides 11-15 to get a feel for how important their Oklahoma SCOOP/STACK play is becoming.

I noticed that they have increased the percentage of liquids in their production mix for 2015 and 2016. This should push my valuation to over $60/share.

There is so much good news on all of these stocks, but the whole sector is out of favor. I guess with the oil price going down and the strong dollar, investors have exited or decided to go short. Yesterday was the worst day I've had all year. Maybe at the end of Sept. things will change with some cooler weather, but it could be awhile.

jb;

I know it is difficult, but try to look past the day-to-day stock price movements. September is still a "soft month" for oil & gas demand, but Q4 is going to be great. Demand for oil always picks up as winter approaches.

The fundamentals for the E&P companies are FANTASTIC today. The netbacks are incredible in these shale plays, over $50/bbl.

Brent oil prices should hold above $100/bbl because Saudi Arabia will step in to defend that price. WTI has tested $93 several times and it appears to be holding. There is very strong support at $90. The Sweet 16 will do just fine if oil stays over $90.

None of us know for sure where commodity prices will be in the short-term, but if we stick with companies that have double digit production and proven reserve growth locked we should be rewarded.

I appreciate your reply. I have a tendency to get really negative after having a bad day. That's why i need a forum like this so I don't panic.

None of us like the down days. Today was much more fun.

today was more like a hopeful bottoming--i'll let y'all know when I am really having fun