Energy Prospectus

Triangle Petroleum will announce their fiscal second quarter results after the close today. They should be good.

Today at 5:11 PM
Triangle Petroleum EPS in-line, beats on revenue • 6:10 PM

Jignesh Mehta, SA News Editor
•Triangle Petroleum (NYSEMKT:TPLM): Q2 EPS of $0.15 in-line.
•Revenue of $141.98M (+181.8% Y/Y) beats by $22.69M.
•Press Release---

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data ... 8_110q.htm

I own this one too

Why the drop?

the drop started soon after start of cc. something said or not said?? anybody know?

been listening to cc and nothing really stands out except for the coming of a cold winter in nd. my thoughts are that since the fall was somewhat gradual it was due to fall in cl to below 93 again as the morning progressed as well as a mkt w/o buyers. yesterday it held up expecting the after mkt report. well it got it and the buyers of good news was limited.

all fwiw.

Now down 7% Unbelievable!

The problem is I have bought in. I think my computer has a virus that trashes anything I touch

I added a little TPLM today.

Simmons & Co. had these comments in this morning's e-mail:

E&P
Triangle Petroleum (TPLM, $11.60/sh, Overweight) Q2 Quick Look:

· Earnings Beat, Including a Healthy Oil Volume Beat: TPLM posted adjusted earnings of $0.20/sh, beating consensus at $0.15/sh, and our estimate of $0.17/sh. Total production and oil production both beat expectations handily and accounted for the majority of the earnings beat (+2c). Total production was 9% above SCI and Street estimates, and included an 11% beat from oil volumes relative to consensus. Oil field service strength was also a positive benefit to quarterly earnings relative to our model.

· Stock Thoughts: The stock is up 40% YTD and down 1% this quarter. Q2 results should lead to outperformance in today’s trading. The lack of new well disclosure could be a minor negative (TPLM usually updates new well results on their website, but removed them last night), but overall production and earnings performance for the quarter should drive the day.

· FY’15 Guidance: TPLM made no update to their 2H’15 guidance (given in May). As a reminder, TPLM's FY'15 ends on 1/31/15. 2H’15 production: 12.1 Mboe/d, 2H’15 EBITDA: $170 MM, FY'15 capex: $640 MM. TPLM is currently running 4 rigs and expects to hold this pace constant for the remainder of FY’15. We are currently modeling FY’15 production of 10.6 Mboe/d (+88% y/y), including 2H’15 production of 12.2 Mboe/d.

· Positive Operational Nuggets: TPLM brought leading edge AFE’s down to $9.5 MM (before eliminations) as a result of efficiencies within their pad drilling efforts. On the RockPile side (oil service), TPLM completed 15 TPLM wells and 19 third party wells during the quarter (34 total completions is up 30% q/q from 26 total completions in Q1). Rockpile is running three pressure pumping spreads and expects to deploy its fourth spread in Q3’15. Backlog totals 25 wells (including 15 third party), down slightly from 31 wells at the end of Q1’15. Total drillbit capex of $102 MM was in-line with our model at $101 MM for Q2.

· Reserve Update: Triangle reported internally evaluated proved reserves of 51.6 MMboe (~79% oil, ~42% PUD) as of 7/31, representing a 28% increase from the externally audited reserves of 40.3 MMboe as of 1/31/14 (and up from the company’s internally audited view of 42.1 MMboe at 4/30/14). The increase was attributable to the Williston acquisition in May and drilling and completion activity. TPLM's net interest in proved developed wells increased to 98 wells from 50 at FY'14. The company's net interest in proved undeveloped wells decreased to ~48 wells from ~53 at FY'14.

I think my computer has also caught that virus. LOL! I guess it's better to laugh than cry.

TPLM's Q2 results look good to me. Dip is probably due to overall market weakness, a lot more sellers these days than buyers. Their RockPile business should get strong profit margins going forward. We will publish an updated profile on TPLM next week.

The fundamentals remain strong for our portfolio companies. Share price weakness is coming from lack of confidence in the oil price.

what did I miss??? from SA---

Traingle Petroleum bounces back from earnings-induced loss • 12:46 PM

Carl Surran, SA News Editor
•Triangle Petroleum (TPLM +4.4%) recovers part of yesterday's 6.7% loss that followed its Q2 earnings report, which actually showed revenue jumping 182% Y/Y to $142M and beating Wall Street consensus call by ~$20M.
•Q2 production volume rose 146% to 971M boe, averaging ~10.5K bbl/day, and higher than expected revenues from Rock Pile.
•A few analysts are coming to TPLM's defense; Wunderlich reiterates its Buy rating and thinks the market move was short-sighted, providing an investment opportunity given the long-term value creation at TPLM.

I've re-looked at the financial details and I still have no idea as to what "earnings-induced loss" is all about.

anybody else?

Canaccord Genuity raised their target price on TPLM to $14.00 (previously $13.00).

Here's a link to their PDF.

https://research.canaccordgenuity.com/_ ... bid=110626

Triangle Petroleum's Presentation, Not Performance, Seems To Be The Issue

Summary
•Triangle Petroleum generated better revenue and profits in the quarter, as better completions boosted production, good service demand fueled RockPile, and operating costs remain under control.
•The Street seems to taken exception to management not boosting production guidance, not offering up well IP rates, and not accelerating the timeline for a possible separation of RockPile.
•The sell-off after the call created a small window of opportunity, but with my fair value estimates in the range of $12-$13/share, Triangle isn't among the cheapest E&P stocks.

complete article here-----

http://seekingalpha.com/article/2485285 ... e?uprof=46