Energy Prospectus

I have updated my Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model for Energy XXI and posted it under the Watch List Tab. Sorry it took me so long to get to it, but I have a very long To Do List.

Based on my forecast, First Call's Price Target for EXXI of $29.29/share is reasonable. It is less than 4X my cash flow per share forecast for Fiscal Year 2015 of $8.13. First Call's current CFPS forecast is $8.72.

My forecast is based on the midpoint of the company's fiscal 2015 production guidance of 61,500 boepd (72.3% oil). They produce a lot of high btu gas, so I am using $4.25/mcf for the gas price and $92/bbl for the oil price.

The company's fiscal first quarter (9/30/2014) results will give us the first good look at what they look like post-merger with EPL.

EXXI is not in any of my recommended portfolios, but it is definitely one to watch. There is a lot of emotion around this one because the share price has been on steady decline for almost a year. Investors have lost a lot of money on this one and the hard feelings run deep, BUT try to look past the emotions and focus on the fundamentals. If first quarter results confirm my forecast, then this one is definitely worth a harder look.

I think a successful ultra deep completion and flow test will give them a huge positive boost. there are currently three completion operations underway or being evaluated with two projected by calendar year end.

My forecast has nothing in it for the Ultra-Deep prospects.

EXXI continues to flounder:
Today's Operations Update:

During the company's fiscal first quarter, oil production is averaging approximately 41,700 barrels of oil per day (Bbl/d). The quarter's volumes were impacted by third party pipeline downtime which accounted for approximately 1,950 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d).
"We expect to reach the mid-point of production guidance despite third-party pipeline outages that were out of our control," Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer John Schiller stated. "We are properly risking our production forecast and plan for the unexpected, while still delivering on our targets. We expect a majority of our third-party downtime to be back online within the next 30 days."

The midpoint of their guidance is 61,500 boepd (72% crude oil). They have a lot of catching up to do.

Again, I am not recommending this stock. Just keeping an eye on it for a few of you.

WHEN I DROP A COMPANY FROM ONE OF OUR MODEL PORTFOLIOS, IT IS BECAUSE I LIKE SOMETHING ELSE BETTER. Hint, Hint, Hint ..........................

for anyone who caught this falling knife.....management is upgrading water handling facility to separate out more water at well-head thereby allowing more oil to be pushed in pipeline....the upgrade should be complete early next year....new completions are being chocked back.....