Sweet 16 Update - October 25
Posted: Sat Oct 25, 2014 11:17 am
The Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio spreadsheet has been updated and posted to the website:
> Tab 1 of the spreadsheet is a summary of the EPS and CFPS forecasts for each company,
> Tab 2 shows my Fair Value Estimate compared to First Call's Price Target for each company as of 10-25-2014
The Sweet 16 is grossly oversold, trading 70% below my combined Fair Value Estimate. First Call's Price Targets are higher than my FVE for CXO, GPOR, MTDR and RRC. I have adjusted my forecast models to assume oil & gas prices of $80/bbl for WTI oil and $3.50/mcf for Henry Hub natural gas in 2015. The prices being used in the forecast models are adjusted for each company's hedges and my SWAG at regional price differentials.
The Sweet 16 had a fairly good week leading up to 3rd quarter earnings reports that will be pouring out next week. The Sweet-16 was up 2.2% for the week, but it is still down 4.93% YTD, compared to the S&P 500 Index that is up 6.29% YTD. If oil prices firm up, strong 3rd quarter results should bring a lot of investors back to this group. [BTW the S&P 500 companies as a group are reporting Q3 results above market expectations. That is what is driving some of the big gains you're seeing in the market indexes. The "Lone Wolf" terrorist attacks and the "Ebola Hype" is causing concerns, that IMHO are a bit overblown.]
NFX, RRC, SM and WLL will report 3rd quarter results early next week. All of the other companies will report the next week (Nov. 3-7). I will be updating the forecast models for the S-16 companies and our other model portfolio companies as quickly as I can after they report quarterly results.
"Reported Earnings" will be much higher than the First Call EPS forecasts for most of the S-16 because they will include large mark-to-market gains on hedges. The Sweet 16 have a lot of their production hedges at prices above the current NYMEX strip. Remember to focus on cash flow per share, not earnings. Cash flows pay the bills.
I will have more on the Sweet 16 in the next edition of "The View From Houston", which will be published on Monday.
> Tab 1 of the spreadsheet is a summary of the EPS and CFPS forecasts for each company,
> Tab 2 shows my Fair Value Estimate compared to First Call's Price Target for each company as of 10-25-2014
The Sweet 16 is grossly oversold, trading 70% below my combined Fair Value Estimate. First Call's Price Targets are higher than my FVE for CXO, GPOR, MTDR and RRC. I have adjusted my forecast models to assume oil & gas prices of $80/bbl for WTI oil and $3.50/mcf for Henry Hub natural gas in 2015. The prices being used in the forecast models are adjusted for each company's hedges and my SWAG at regional price differentials.
The Sweet 16 had a fairly good week leading up to 3rd quarter earnings reports that will be pouring out next week. The Sweet-16 was up 2.2% for the week, but it is still down 4.93% YTD, compared to the S&P 500 Index that is up 6.29% YTD. If oil prices firm up, strong 3rd quarter results should bring a lot of investors back to this group. [BTW the S&P 500 companies as a group are reporting Q3 results above market expectations. That is what is driving some of the big gains you're seeing in the market indexes. The "Lone Wolf" terrorist attacks and the "Ebola Hype" is causing concerns, that IMHO are a bit overblown.]
NFX, RRC, SM and WLL will report 3rd quarter results early next week. All of the other companies will report the next week (Nov. 3-7). I will be updating the forecast models for the S-16 companies and our other model portfolio companies as quickly as I can after they report quarterly results.
"Reported Earnings" will be much higher than the First Call EPS forecasts for most of the S-16 because they will include large mark-to-market gains on hedges. The Sweet 16 have a lot of their production hedges at prices above the current NYMEX strip. Remember to focus on cash flow per share, not earnings. Cash flows pay the bills.
I will have more on the Sweet 16 in the next edition of "The View From Houston", which will be published on Monday.