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Devon Energy = GREAT 3rd Quarter

Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2014 3:18 pm
by dan_s
Credit Suisse analyst Arun Jayaram and team call Devon’s quarter “transformational.” They explain why:

"Not only was Devon able to beat closely watched oil production expectations, but the company also raised its full-year production volumes at the same E&P capex. The new ops report read better than a Hemingway novel, with management reiterating its 2015 20-25% oil production growth target at similar E&P spend as in ’14, materially raising its Bone Spring type curve, announcing a prolific well in Martin County (200 locations), accelerating Eagle Ford completion activity, highlighting potential type curve and inventory increases in the Eagle Ford, raising its Cana-Woodford type curve, and signaling a meaningful dropdown was possible to EnLink beginning in early 2015. In our view, Devon is one of the most mispriced names in large cap E&P, with the E&P business trading at less than 4.0x EV/EBITDA.

Deutsche Bank’s Stepgen Richardson and team are equally excited about EOG Resources, which they call “best in class.” They explains why:

"3Q at EOG was as hotly debated as we can remember with true believers armed with state data challenging explicit company guidance. 3Q should put these fears to rest with a strong sequential US oil beat (~19 mbpd) which we understand was split equally between the Eagle Ford and other regions (Permian, Rockies). Bigger picture, EOG continues to define its competitive advantage relative to oil growth peers and we continue to see the diversification of oil growth in 2014+ as a key positive. In a market looking for the marginal barrel to ration, EOG provides ample evidence of a low cost leader with duration."

Re: Devon Energy = GREAT 3rd Quarter

Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2014 3:39 pm
by dan_s
Devon Energy Reports Third-Quarter 2014 Results

• Achieved record oil production exceeding company guidance
• Generated U.S. oil production growth of 77 percent year over year
• Increased full-year production outlook
• Improved pre-tax cash margin by 20 percent year over year
• Closed $2.3 billion asset sale further enhancing strong financial position

Re: Devon Energy = GREAT 3rd Quarter

Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2014 3:40 pm
by dan_s
Adjusting for items securities analysts typically exclude from their published estimates, the company earned $552 million or $1.34 per diluted share in the third quarter. This represents a 4 percent increase in adjusted earnings compared to the third quarter of 2013. [My forecast was $1.33 adjusted EPS]

Devon generated cash flow from operations totaling $1.6 billion in the third quarter. Combined with $2.3 billion of pre-tax proceeds from the sale of non-core U.S. assets, Devon’s total cash inflows for the quarter approached $4 billion.

Re: Devon Energy = GREAT 3rd Quarter

Posted: Wed Nov 05, 2014 4:41 pm
by dan_s
An updated Net Income & Cash Flow Forecast model for Devon Energy (DVN) has been posted under the Sweet 16 page.

My Fair Value Estimate has increased $5.00 to $104.50/share. This compares to First Call's Price Target of $81.36.

I could justify a much higher value because I am using a multiple of only 6X CFPS. After the asset sales, Devon has a very strong balance sheet and they now have a portfolio of assets with many years of running room. The company is generating free cash flow, even at today's low oil & gas prices. I could easily justify a multiple of 8X CFPS.

DVN is now a "Core Holding" quality company. The CEO has done a fantastic job transforming this company from a "gasser" to one with a much more balance portfolio.