Energy Prospectus

It is a myth that the United States even has a chance at becoming energy independent. No one with a brain actually believes it. Those that say it are mixing the facts or just dishonest. Here is some hard data from the EIA website.

> For the four weeks that ended 12/12/2014 U.S. Crude oil production averaged 9,104,000 bbls per day, up from 8,041,000 bbls per day for the same period a year ago.

> For the same four week period, the U.S. crude oil imports were 7,387,000 bbls per day, compared to 7,530,000 the year before.

> Note that U.S. production is up YOY 1,033,000 BOPD, but our imports are only down 143,000 BOPD. This is because our demand continues to grow.

Even in our "Hay Day" the U.S. only produced over 10 million BOPD for a brief period. If oil prices had stayed over $100/bbl, we might have reached 11 MMBOPD before we went back on decline, but I that will happen now. Since our refineries process 16-17 MMBOPD, you can see that we will NEVER be "independent" when it comes to crude oil. Anyone that tells you otherwise is ignorant or being dishonest.

Every report I have seen on the U.S. Shale Plays has production peaking in 2017 or 2018.

Oil Stimulus Money

According to AAA, retail gasoline prices this week averaged $2.477.

That's the first time gasoline has been under $2.50 since 2009. By January, it could be as low as $2.25 for a gallon of regular.

This comes at a time of the year when middle-class Americans and paycheck-to-paycheck consumers need an extra bit of cash for Christmas gifts or travel expenses so they can see friends and family.

Thankfully, what some are calling the "oil stimulus" has given them just that.

And that little bit of extra cash has allowed millions of people to spend more and stimulate the economy... something investors have seen in the last couple months.

dan_s wrote:It is a myth that the United States even has a chance at becoming energy independent. No one with a brain actually believes it. Those that say it are mixing the facts or just dishonest. Here is some hard data from the EIA website.

> For the four weeks that ended 12/12/2014 U.S. Crude oil production averaged 9,104,000 bbls per day, up from 8,041,000 bbls per day for the same period a year ago.

> For the same four week period, the U.S. crude oil imports were 7,387,000 bbls per day, compared to 7,530,000 the year before.

> Note that U.S. production is up YOY 1,033,000 BOPD, but our imports are only down 143,000 BOPD. This is because our demand continues to grow.

Even in our "Hay Day" the U.S. only produced over 10 million BOPD for a brief period. If oil prices had stayed over $100/bbl, we might have reached 11 MMBOPD before we went back on decline, but I that will happen now. Since our refineries process 16-17 MMBOPD, you can see that we will NEVER be "independent" when it comes to crude oil. Anyone that tells you otherwise is ignorant or being dishonest.

Every report I have seen on the U.S. Shale Plays has production peaking in 2017 or 2018.

How much of the imports are net imports after export of products? Also, if we were to focus on NA and not just the US - what would it be?

Gross and net shown here.

http://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.cfm?id=727&t=6

There is a slim chance that we could become North American energy independent, but don't hold your breath. We already import most of the Canadian and Mexican exported oil and it is not enough.

It is very important that when you look at statistics you know what your are looking at. The EIA often sites total petroleum liquids, that include a lot of NGLs. NGLs are not crude oil. The world now consumes a total of 93.5 million bbls of refined liquid hydrocarbon based fuel and feedstock per day. That includes NGLs and biofuels. About 75 million bbls per day is refined from crude oil.

The U.S. currently consumes 16-17 million bbls of crude oil per day and we produce slightly over 9 million bbls per day. The most optimistic forecasts I have seen show U.S. crude oil production reaching 11 million per day. Keep in mind that a lot of the liquids coming from the shale plays are NGLs.

My point is that this is just political crap anyway. We are never going to be "food independent" either, even though we export a lot of grain. The U.S. is "Inter-Dependent" and we always will be when it comes to almost every consumable on this planet. If I were president (a very scary thought I know), I would slap a $20/bbl tariff on all crude oil imported from outside of North America and use the money to pay for the U.S. Navy. I would tell OPEC that if you mess with the global price of oil we will raise the tariff. The Persian Gulf states depend heavily on the U.S. Navy to protect them. It is about time they paid for it. Of course, as President, I would have told Iraq we are taking a million bbls per day of their oil to pay for the last two wars and I would not have lost a wink of sleep over it.