Energy Prospectus

Baker Hughes reporting another 147 North American drilling rigs were dropped from active duty last week. A drop of 986 from a year ago.

The number of onshore rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. dropped by 56 to 866.

Read: http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hu ... -13-2015-3

Total U.S. onshore active rig count is down to 1,069 (both oil & gas). I now think it will drop below 900 by the end of April. U.S. onshore oil production will peak in a few months, then rollover and go into decline sometime in the 3rd quarter. It will be very difficult to reverse the trend once production goes on decline.

Remember that it is a lot easier to layoff crews and stack rigs than it is to mobilize them again. The E&P companies will not increase capital spending again until they are sure the oil & gas prices will move higher.

drop of 80 rigs in canada is seasonal--they would have come down regardless of the cl price. wella huge majority anyway.

NDIC Department of Mineral Resources - Data seems to indicate that North Dakota production has already started month over month rollover starting with Jan vs. Dec, both oil and gas?

3/12/2015
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Director’s Cut
Lynn Helms
NDIC Department of Mineral Resources


Dec Oil 38,051,988 barrels = 1,227,483 barrels/day
Jan Oil 36,905,179 barrels = 1,190,490 barrels/day (preliminary)(all-time high was Dec 2014 1,227,483 barrels/day)
1,128,707 barrels per day or 95% from Bakken and Three Forks
61,783 barrels per day or 5% from legacy conventional pools
Dec Gas 46,836,598 MCF = 1,570,858 MCF/day
Jan Gas 45,660,015 MCF = 1,472,904 MCF/day (preliminary)(all-time high was Dec 2014 1,570,858 MCF/day)
Dec Producing Wells = 12,134
Jan Producing Wells = 12,181 (preliminary)(NEW all-time high)
9,027 wells or 74% are now unconventional Bakken – Three forks wells
3,154 wells or 26% produce from legacy conventional pools
Dec Permitting: 251 drilling and 0 seismic
Jan Permitting: 246 drilling and 0 seismic
Feb Permitting: 197 drilling and 2 seismic (all time high was 370 in 10/2012)
Dec Sweet Crude Price = $40.74/barrel
Jan Sweet Crude Price = $31.41/barrel
Feb Sweet Crude Price = $34.11/barrel
Today Sweet Crude Price = $32.00/barrel (lowest since Feb 2009 and Jan 2015) (all-time high was $136.29 7/3/2008)
Dec rig count 181
Jan rig count 160
Feb rig count 133
Today’s rig count is 111 (lowest since April 2010)(all-time high was 218 on 5/29/2012)
The statewide rig count is down 49% from the high and in the five most active counties rig count is down as follows:
Divide -69% (high was 3/2013)
Dunn -58% (high was 6/2012)
McKenzie -32% (high was 1/2014)
Mountrail -49% (high was 6/2011)
Williams -63% (high was 10/2014)