Bonanza Creek Update - July 16
Posted: Thu Jul 16, 2015 9:18 am
From Stifel:
Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI)
Wattenberg
Management believes the geology across its core acreage is very consistent. The
company’s internal 3P analysis is based on 70k net acres while Codell potential on its
eastern acreage and the Niobrara A Bench could increase this estimate although
BCEI will not test this zone this year.
Full-year 2015 production guidance is unlikely to change although wet weather slowed
2Q15 activity levels. Management stressed that any potential near-term shortfall has
no bearing on the underlying value of its assets. Volumes are expected to be lumpy as
pad sizes continue to expand. The company is currently completing a centralized
processing facility with 40 wells.
BCEI is anxiously awaiting results from SYRG’s upcoming Greenhorn test as it
believes the geology on its acreage is similar to SYRG’s to the east. APC has also
tested the formation to the southwest of BCEI’s leasehold.
Wattenberg Spacing
The company projects an average 2-stream EUR of 354 MBoe/well for 14 wells
spaced on 40-acres in the Niobrara B and C Benches. As such, it expects this acreage
to be developed on this spacing, which implies 32 wells/section in two zones. It also
expects to develop its northern and southern acreage blocks on 80-acre spacing in
each of these two zones (16 wells/section). Codell wells spaced on 160-acres
(4/section) could add to these totals.
Midstream
Management believes infrastructure issues within Wattenberg Field should improve
over the next two years. DCP Midstream’s Lucerne 2 plant is currently processing
about 100 MMcf/d and should ramp to its full 200 MMcf/d of capacity over the next two
weeks. While improved, line pressures remain high as nearby compression in not
operating at 100% yet either. Pressures should decline as the 70 Ranch and Rocky
Compression systems ramp to capacity while the 40 MMcf/d Sullivan plant operates
more consistently with less stress. BCEI has also added some of its own compression
and gathering pipelines. All of these additions should have a positive impact on 2H15
production.
Management expects its oil price differential to WTI to decline below $9/Bl although it
continues to officially guide $9 to $10/Bl. The company is trucking oil to Pony Express
and other sales points now but would eventually like to build pipelines to these
locations.
Balance Sheet
BCEI had $807mn in debt (3/31/15) with the nearest maturity in six years.
Management would like to lower its debt metrics (debt/TTM EBITDA of 1.9x at
3/31/15) but did not detail any plans to accomplish this.
Proved Reserves
The company does not anticipate significant reserve write-downs with upcoming
reserve reports as it has booked locations conservatively. For example, BCEI never
books more than 1 PUD per PDP location. Management expects many of its
competitors to lose reserves with upcoming reports as they have been more
aggressive in booking locations. BCEI converted 21% of its PUD locations to PDP
locations last year compared with 9% for its competitors.
Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI)
Wattenberg
Management believes the geology across its core acreage is very consistent. The
company’s internal 3P analysis is based on 70k net acres while Codell potential on its
eastern acreage and the Niobrara A Bench could increase this estimate although
BCEI will not test this zone this year.
Full-year 2015 production guidance is unlikely to change although wet weather slowed
2Q15 activity levels. Management stressed that any potential near-term shortfall has
no bearing on the underlying value of its assets. Volumes are expected to be lumpy as
pad sizes continue to expand. The company is currently completing a centralized
processing facility with 40 wells.
BCEI is anxiously awaiting results from SYRG’s upcoming Greenhorn test as it
believes the geology on its acreage is similar to SYRG’s to the east. APC has also
tested the formation to the southwest of BCEI’s leasehold.
Wattenberg Spacing
The company projects an average 2-stream EUR of 354 MBoe/well for 14 wells
spaced on 40-acres in the Niobrara B and C Benches. As such, it expects this acreage
to be developed on this spacing, which implies 32 wells/section in two zones. It also
expects to develop its northern and southern acreage blocks on 80-acre spacing in
each of these two zones (16 wells/section). Codell wells spaced on 160-acres
(4/section) could add to these totals.
Midstream
Management believes infrastructure issues within Wattenberg Field should improve
over the next two years. DCP Midstream’s Lucerne 2 plant is currently processing
about 100 MMcf/d and should ramp to its full 200 MMcf/d of capacity over the next two
weeks. While improved, line pressures remain high as nearby compression in not
operating at 100% yet either. Pressures should decline as the 70 Ranch and Rocky
Compression systems ramp to capacity while the 40 MMcf/d Sullivan plant operates
more consistently with less stress. BCEI has also added some of its own compression
and gathering pipelines. All of these additions should have a positive impact on 2H15
production.
Management expects its oil price differential to WTI to decline below $9/Bl although it
continues to officially guide $9 to $10/Bl. The company is trucking oil to Pony Express
and other sales points now but would eventually like to build pipelines to these
locations.
Balance Sheet
BCEI had $807mn in debt (3/31/15) with the nearest maturity in six years.
Management would like to lower its debt metrics (debt/TTM EBITDA of 1.9x at
3/31/15) but did not detail any plans to accomplish this.
Proved Reserves
The company does not anticipate significant reserve write-downs with upcoming
reserve reports as it has booked locations conservatively. For example, BCEI never
books more than 1 PUD per PDP location. Management expects many of its
competitors to lose reserves with upcoming reports as they have been more
aggressive in booking locations. BCEI converted 21% of its PUD locations to PDP
locations last year compared with 9% for its competitors.