Energy Prospectus

CRUDE OIL INVENTORY/’000 bbls (Week Ended 7/17/15)

Current: 463,885
Actual Build/(Withdrawal): 2,468
Economist Average Estimate: (1,450)
Previous: 461,417
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Initial reaction on NYMEX was a drop in WTI to $49.70, buyers moved in and the front month contract quickly moved back over $50.

IMO the reason WTI bounced back quickly is because the increased inventory level is the result of much higher imports, not an increase in U.S. production. This is also an indication that U.S. oil production is on decline and we are becoming more dependent on imports. So much for energy independence. - Dan

From EIA website: Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 17, 2015

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending July 17, 2015, 45,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 95.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging over 10.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging about 5.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.9 million barrels per day last week, up by 587,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.5 million barrels per day, 2.5% above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 815,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 193,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 463.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels last week, but are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 0.3 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week.

Demand for refined products is going up: Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged about 20.0 million barrels per day, up by 3.4% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.6 million barrels per day, up by 6.9% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 1.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is down 2.6% compared to the same four-week period last year.