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bummer
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2015 3:25 pm
by mkarpoff
Let's face it. We are all getting killed. My question of the day for you Dan is which recommendations might be the fastest to snap back, or have the most upside, if/when prices start going up?
Re: bummer
Posted: Wed Jul 22, 2015 10:57 pm
by dan_s
In 2009 it was the small-caps that made the big moves in the rebound. Just do your homework. This is why I have been spending a lot of time on the small-caps the last few weeks. Read the profiles.
Re: bummer
Posted: Thu Jul 23, 2015 3:16 pm
by bearcatbob
To me the situation is easy to explain. The Boone Pickens scenario of oil prices rebounding (which Dan agrees to in concept I believe) is either right or wrong.
If in 2017 WTI is trading at $40 - any investments we have in oil are kaput. By 2017 hedges will be largely gone and debt service will remain.
If in 2017 WTI is trading near $90 - hey we will be doing better.
It is that simple. Will Saudi/OPEC self destruct?
Just look at the political headlines of the day. Decide what philosophy will win out. Will Iran sing Kumbaya and Kerry get a Nobel Peace Prize?
You buys your tickee and you takes your chances.
Bob
PS: IMO - for what absolutely little it is worth - is that the current WTI price scenario is utterly unsustainable. But then my beliefs have proven to be very expensive lately.