IEA
Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2015 5:03 pm
The International Energy Agency, IEA, started this year with a forecast of 900,000 barrels per day of worldwide oil demand growth for 2015.
In their June Oil Market Report they increased their demand forecast to 1,400,000 BOPD for 2015 and 1,200,000 BOPD for 2016
In their July Oil Market Report they said this: "Global oil demand in 2015 is expected to grow by 1.6 mb/d, up 0.2 mb/d from our previous Report and the fastest pace in five years, as economic growth solidifies and consumers respond to lower oil prices. Persistent macro-economic strength supports above-trend growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2016.
Early this year, I was pounding the table the EIA and IEA forecast models are FLAWED. They do not compensate for the BIG INCREASE in demand when refined products are cheaper and a lot more available.
Mark my words, when the final numbers are in for 2015, YOY demand will exceed 2.0 million barrels per day.
NOTE: During the last cycle. after a dip in demand in 2008, demand went up 3.3 million barrels per day in 2009 (that same year IEA started with a very low demand forecast).
In their June Oil Market Report they increased their demand forecast to 1,400,000 BOPD for 2015 and 1,200,000 BOPD for 2016
In their July Oil Market Report they said this: "Global oil demand in 2015 is expected to grow by 1.6 mb/d, up 0.2 mb/d from our previous Report and the fastest pace in five years, as economic growth solidifies and consumers respond to lower oil prices. Persistent macro-economic strength supports above-trend growth of 1.4 mb/d in 2016.
Early this year, I was pounding the table the EIA and IEA forecast models are FLAWED. They do not compensate for the BIG INCREASE in demand when refined products are cheaper and a lot more available.
Mark my words, when the final numbers are in for 2015, YOY demand will exceed 2.0 million barrels per day.
NOTE: During the last cycle. after a dip in demand in 2008, demand went up 3.3 million barrels per day in 2009 (that same year IEA started with a very low demand forecast).