Energy Prospectus

Primary reason for crude oil inventory build is less went to the refiners. Refiners will soon be ramping up production of home heating oil. - Dan

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending October 2, 2015

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 15.6 million barrels per day during the week ending October 2, 2015, 403,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 87.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.3 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging about 5.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.1 million barrels per day last week, down by 486,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.2 million barrels per day, 3.3% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 543,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 111,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.1 million barrels from the previous week. At 461.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels last week, and are above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 2.5 million barrels last week but are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 1.6 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 2.3 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.3 million barrels per day, down by 0.3% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.0 million barrels per day, up by 4.0% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged over 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 3.7% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 6.9% compared to the same four-week period last year.

EIA numbers don't make sense. They reported U.S. daily production increased to 9,172,000 BOPD for the week ended 10/2/2015, from 9,096,000 BOPD for the week that ended 9/25/2015.

1. They have no data collections themselves so all of their weekly numbers are formula driven.
2. Actual production numbers come from the states and their most current actuals are 90 days old.
3. We are not completing enough new wells in the U.S. to offset the declining production of old wells, not even close.

Look for a "correction" next week. When API reports a draw from storage and EIA reports a build, which just happened, we usually see EIA correct it the next week.