Energy Prospectus

EIA: US shale oil output to plunge 118,000 b/d in December
Crude oil production in December from seven major US shale plays is expected to drop 118,000 b/d to 4.95 million b/d, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s latest Drilling Productivity Report (DPR). The agency projected a 93,000-b/d decline for November.

See EIA report: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/drilling/#tabs-summary-2

As I have posted here many time, the rate of decline will continue to accelerate. Upstream companies are not completing anywhere close to the number of wells necessary to offset the decline of older wells.

From 4-1-2015 to 3-31-2016 (twelve months), United States oil production will decline by more than 1.2 million barrels per day. Unless oil prices move back to $60/bbl VERY SOON, my SWAG is that the decline will be more than 1.5 million barrels per day. IT WILL TAKE A MASSIVE EFFORT TO REVERSE THE DECLINE.

December natural gas production from the seven plays is projected to drop 394 MMcfd to 44.29 bcfd, EIA says. The bulk of that decline is again expected to come in the Marcellus, which is seen losing 229 MMcfd to 15.66 bcfd. Substantial losses are also projected for the Eagle Ford, down 160 MMcfd to 6.53 bcfd; and Niobrara, down 61 MMcfd to 4.18 bcfd. The Utica is expected to increase 66 MMcfd to 3.13 bcfd.

Note that a lot of the natural gas production we've added in the last few years came from the oil plays. This "Associated Gas" from horizontal shale oil wells declines very fast after the wells are placed on-line. The fact that our gas production is now falling doesn't get much attention during the shoulder season, but it will in the first quarter.

See Article: http://www.ogj.com/articles/2015/11/eia ... id=1230332

A good msg with charts on oil and gas production by company

http://www.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp ... d=15491910