Energy Prospectus

CRUDE OIL INVENTORY/’000 bbls (Week Ended 1/15/16)

Current: 486,537
Actual Build/(Withdrawal): 3,979
Economist Average Estimate: 2,678
Previous: 482,558

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.2 million barrels per day during the week ending January 15, 2016, 233,000 barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 90.6% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging about 9.5 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging about 4.6 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 7.8 million barrels per day last week, down by 409,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.8 million barrels per day, 9.6% above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 512,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 185,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 4.0 million barrels from the previous week. At 486.5 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 4.6 million barrels last week, and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week but are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories fell 1.9 million barrels last week but are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 6.6 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged over 19.3 million barrels per day, down by 1.8% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 8.8 million barrels per day, down by 2.8% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.3 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 15.4% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is down 3.1% compared to the same four-week period last year.

there was a big jump in product supplied week/week.

lines 26, 27, 29 and 30

http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf

Near the end of oil price cycles we can get some fairly significant short covering rallies.

I don't see much hope of oil prices moving a lot higher in the first quarter, but a move back to the mid $30s is possible.
The outlook should improve in the second quarter.
> Demand for refined products is somewhat seasonal. Each year demand for oil wanes from the 4th quarter into the first quarter.
> The warmer than normal weather to start the winter heating season, thanks to a Super El Nino, has lowered demand for heating oil. However, we could see an uptick in heating oil demand over the next few weeks.
> Concerns about the Chinese economy weigh on the oil traders. China’s thirst for more oil has been a significant part of global demand growth during this decade.
> Sanctions being lifted against Iran add a third concern, however I believe this is more of a “fear” than a reality. In a world that consumes over 96 million barrels per day of hydrocarbon based liquid fuels another 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day from Iran is more of a rounding error.