Energy Prospectus

For the fourth quarter, the Company recorded a net loss of $663 million, or $4.06 per diluted share (all per share amounts are on a diluted basis). The loss was primarily related to a full-cost ceiling test impairment of $702 million ($651 million after-tax, or $3.95 per share). After adjusting for the effect of impairments and unrealized derivative losses, net income would have been $50 million, or $0.30 per share. < Beat my Q4 EPS forecast of $0.02

Revenues for the fourth quarter were $362 million. Net cash provided by operating activities before changes in operating assets and liabilities was $289 million. < Beat my forecast of $232 million.

Outlook for 2016: http://files.ctctcdn.com/c15c174c401/20 ... b991eb.pdf

If you own Gastar Exploration (GST) you need to go to the link above and carefully review slides 10-16. It will give you an idea of the potential GST has in STACK.

I have updated my forecast for NFX and it will be posted to the EPG website this evening.

My valuation goes up slightly to $52.00/share, compared to First Call's price target of $37.43.

NFX gives detailed production and expense guidance, so it is very easy to forecast cash flows. They have a high percentage of their 2016 production hedged.
Cash flow from operations should be $850 to $900 million in 2016, compared to a capital program of $650 million.

NFX and CLR are both getting outstanding results in the STACK play. Both are saying that EURs on the extended reach laterals will be over a million boe per well. On Newfield's new slides (#13) there is a map showing all of their STACK wells. It shows the Gastar well, so you can see how far the STACK drilling has moved toward the GST leasehold. NFX will be drilling several direct offsets to GST leasehold this year.