Energy Prospectus

This article is a good report and explains why I'm so high on Carrizo Oil & Gas (CRZO). The market views CRZO as a gasser but they are going to rapidly increase their liquids production this year. Short term delay in getting some Eagle Ford production has held the share price down but that situation is being resolved. This one is way below my Fair Value estimate. - Dan

http://seekingalpha.com/article/248313- ... urce=yahoo

The Niobrara could soon be "The Next Big Thing".

Niobrara-Focused JV with CNOOC – Chesapeake Energy (CHK) announced January 30 a Niobrara-focused “cooperation agreement” with CNOOC International Limited covering 800k net acres in the DJ and Powder River Basins. The company was widely expected to announce a Niobrara joint venture in the first quarter and the terms are about what was expected, in our opinion. CNOOC will pay $570mm upon closing of the deal plus it will fund 66.7% of CHK’s share of drilling and completion costs up to a cumulative total of $697mm for a total consideration of $1.267 billion. The deal is expected to close by the end of the first quarter.

This agreement is primarily about oil production, I guess, but there will be lots of associated gas produced too...which should keep the ngas price down...which will hurt CHK as well as other producers.

From Pritchard morning report:

CRZO ($32.63-B-$38) – Tweaking price target to $38 from $37
• Giving more credit to Eagle Ford and Niobrara acreage
• Price target 80% of $47/share NAV
• Lowering Q4 2010 and full year 2011 and 2012 EPS/CFPS to $0.18/$0.84, $2.28/$5.70 and $3.15/$7.46 from $0.27/$0.95, $2.31/$5.95 and $3.27/$7.89
• Estimates adjusted for previously announced stock offering, higher anticipated interest expense in Q4 2010, Q4 2010 commodity prices and higher anticipated oil production
My Fair Value estimate = $45 (close to their NAV) - Dan