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Noble Energy (NBL)

Posted: Fri Jun 03, 2016 10:11 am
by dan_s
Noble Energy (NBL finally) received regulatory approval from the Israeli government to develop a fixed platform for the Leviathan field offshore Israel. The approved Plan of Development (“POD”) will allow a subsea system that will connect the production wells to a fixed platform located offshore with tie-in onshore in the northern part of Israel.

Noble Energy believes that the fixed platform will provide several benefits including allowing it to better match the timing of capital with the pace of contracted demand and can expand the scale of operation as per requirement. The fixed platform’s initial capacity is anticipated to be 1.2 billion cubic feet of natural gas per day (Bcf/d) and is expandable to 2.1 Bcf/d.

The Eastern Mediterranean provides an excellent opportunity for Noble Energy given its low-cost operation, abundant supply of natural gas and increasing regional demand. Noble Energy through 11 successful exploration and appraisal wells has discovered more than 40 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of natural gas resources in the Levant Basin.

Natural gas demand in Israel will increase going forward as coal-fired power stations are increasingly being replaced by natural gas plants for the generation of electricity. The Leviathan field will act a second source of gas supply for meeting the rising demand for this fossil fuel in Israel.

Noble Energy operates Leviathan with a 39.66% working interest while its other partners are Delek Drilling with 22.67%, Avner Oil Exploration with 22.67%, and Ratio Oil Exploration (1992) Limited Partnership with the remaining 15%.

Noble said that it has signed a gas sales and purchase agreement (GSPA) to supply natural gas from the Leviathan field to IPM Beer Tuvia Ltd (IPM). Per the GSPA, Noble Energy and its Leviathan partners will supply a gross quantity of up to 473 billion cubic feet of natural gas to the independent power facility over an 18-year term. Total gross revenue under the contract is estimated to exceed $2.5 billion.

In Israel, Noble Energy’s sales volume of natural gas was 266 million cubic feet (Mmcf/d) equivalent per day in the first quarter of 2016, up 10% year over year. Without any doubt, the sales volume will go up further in the coming years, thanks to the fixed platform.

Re: Noble Energy (NBL)

Posted: Wed Jun 08, 2016 10:25 am
by dan_s
On June 7, Stifel raised NBL to a BUY with a $45 price target. My valuation is $44.50, which will increase with higher oil prices. Below are highlights from the Stifel report. - Dan

Uncommon Growth
NBL is one of the few companies in our peer group generating double-digit
production growth this year. We project 2016 volumes to increase 15% y/y while
discretionary cash flow exceeds capex by more than $300MM. The latter does not
include 1H16 divestiture proceeds of $743MM or potential future sales.

Solid Balance Sheet
Liquidity and cash should stay above $5B and $1B, respectively, throughout 2016
as a credit facility with a $4B borrowing base remains undrawn. We project
debt/TTM EBITDA to increase to 3.1x at YE16 from 2.8x at YE15.

DJ Generating Strong Returns
Based on recent NYMEX strip pricing, NBL's DJ Basin East Pony and Wells Ranch
wells generate a PVI 10 of 2.0x and 1.7x, comparable to the stronger areas of the
Permian Basin.

Emerging Permian Basin Potential
The company's first two Delaware Basin wells are significantly outperforming our
600 MBoe type curve after 30 days of production. Additional data from these two,
along with NBL's 3rd Wolfcamp well, could cause us to raise our Permian Basin
acreage NAV estimate.