Oil Supply Disruptions
Posted: Mon Jun 06, 2016 10:09 am
As supply & demand tighten, stuff like this will have a lot more impact on price of oil. IEA forecast is for demand to catch up to supply within 90 days. -Dan
Numerous strikes and potential strikes could add to bullish sentiment in coming
days. Several countries have seen or are facing strike action over the next month,
however union activity is yet to cause disruption on a scale that cannot be solved with
stock draws. These factors should be watched, as many oil firms do not have the
resources to simply solve unrest through higher payouts.
• Argentina: Workers at YPF reduced production 40% during a 24 hour weekend strike
to protest cost-cutting measures
• Brazil: Unions plan a 24 hr. strike protesting a proposal eliminating the requirement
that Petrobras hold a 30% stake in all future sub-salt projects. The short duration
makes a physical impact unlikely/minor, but the political situation in Brazil raises the
prospect of more strikes in the future.
• France: 5 refineries (850 kb/d total capacity) have completely stopped operations with
the 3 others in the country running at only slightly reduced rates.
• Norway: Negotiations over platform workers’ wages broke down, raising the possibility
of strikes if no deal is reached during mediation scheduled for June 20. Workers last
went on strike in June 2012 for 16 days, reducing production by 150 kb/d.
• UK: Workers at the 1 mmb/d Teeside crude terminal voted in favor of labor action, but
the extent of a potential strike is still unclear.
Numerous strikes and potential strikes could add to bullish sentiment in coming
days. Several countries have seen or are facing strike action over the next month,
however union activity is yet to cause disruption on a scale that cannot be solved with
stock draws. These factors should be watched, as many oil firms do not have the
resources to simply solve unrest through higher payouts.
• Argentina: Workers at YPF reduced production 40% during a 24 hour weekend strike
to protest cost-cutting measures
• Brazil: Unions plan a 24 hr. strike protesting a proposal eliminating the requirement
that Petrobras hold a 30% stake in all future sub-salt projects. The short duration
makes a physical impact unlikely/minor, but the political situation in Brazil raises the
prospect of more strikes in the future.
• France: 5 refineries (850 kb/d total capacity) have completely stopped operations with
the 3 others in the country running at only slightly reduced rates.
• Norway: Negotiations over platform workers’ wages broke down, raising the possibility
of strikes if no deal is reached during mediation scheduled for June 20. Workers last
went on strike in June 2012 for 16 days, reducing production by 150 kb/d.
• UK: Workers at the 1 mmb/d Teeside crude terminal voted in favor of labor action, but
the extent of a potential strike is still unclear.