Page 1 of 1
sm
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 11:47 am
by mkarpoff
Disappointing production from sm? Price drop. Ugh.
Re: sm
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 11:57 am
by dan_s
Everything was down today on fear of UK leaving European Union. IMO "Fears" like this end up having no impact on oil demand.
As I posted before, SM produces a lot of natural gas. Gas prices should continue to drift higher.
Re: sm
Posted: Thu Jun 16, 2016 2:18 pm
by dan_s
I updated the SM forecast model and posted it to the website. A company with cash flows like this deserves to be trading at 6X operating cash flow per share. It has plenty of cash flow, liquidity and lots of running room. The fact that it trades at such a low multiple compared to the peer group is a mystery to me.
Operating cash flow per share:
2014A = $21.10
2015A = $13.48
2016E = $9.32 < based on my forecast
2017E = $13.20 < based on my forecast
Re: sm
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 10:20 am
by bigtex
very nice pop on SM today
Re: sm
Posted: Fri Jun 17, 2016 12:51 pm
by dan_s
Fundamentals do win eventually and SM has a lot more upside, unless my forecast model is WAY OFF.