Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 3,103 Bcf as of Friday, June 17, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 62 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 618 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 678 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,425 Bcf. At 3,103 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.

The increase of 62 Bcf compares to the 5-year average of 87 Bcf.

The last seven week storage reports show a combined 158 Bcf lower storage build than the 5-year average. I am expecting weekly injections all summer to be 20-40 bcf below the 5-yr average, which will get storage close to the 5-yr average before the start of the next winter heating season.

At yesterday's luncheon, I made the bold statement that if natural gas in storage is under 4,000 Bcf at Mid-November (the beginning of the winter heating season) we will see Q1 2017 natural gas prices over $4.00/mmbtu. There are 21 more weeks before Mid-November.

The 5-yr average inventory level is 3,834 Bcf at Mid-November.

U.S. natural gas production is now falling by 0.5 Bcf per day month-after-month + a HOT summer is expected to increase natural gas demand. Not counting gas in inventory, Supply/Demand for gas will be 5 to 6 Bcf per day tighter in December than it was a year ago. This means utility companies will need to draw more from inventory to meet residential heating demand. Industrial demand and demand from gas fired power plants will also be higher than last year.

A "La Nina" is building in the Pacific, which means a normal to cold winter in the U.S.

"The increase of 62 Bcf compares to the 5-year average of 87 Bcf.

The last seven week storage reports show a combined 158 Bcf lower storage build than the 5-year average. I am expecting weekly injections all summer to be 20-40 bcf below the 5-yr average, which will get storage close to the 5-yr average before the start of the next winter heating season."

Dan, Is it possible you could post a graph or tabular data for this data? To me this is the number that truly tells the story.

Alternately, I assume I could go back through this board and find the data for each of the 7 weeks and make the graph/table myself. If it is readily available to you please post it. If it takes a data dig - let me know and I will do it assuming it is available on this board.

Bob

Edit - per your directions the data is here.

http://americanoilman.homestead.com/GasStorage.html

Below is a quick take from the list. I do not have the time now to double check it - but the trend is clear. It will be nice to see the divergences grow.

Data Edited June 26:

-25 12-May-16
-17 19-May-16
-28 26-May-16
-17 2-Jun-16
-29 9-Jun-16
-17 16-Jun-16
-25 23-Jun-16
-167

There is a table at http://www.americanoilman.com/ that shows the weekly builds and draws from storage for the last five years.

Go to the link above and click on Gas Storage in the upper left.

Save this website as a favorite. Lots of good information there.