Sweet 16 Update - June 25
Posted: Sat Jun 25, 2016 10:40 am
The Sweet 16 spreadsheet has been updated and posted to the EPG website. You must log on to view it.
It shows my valuation for each stock compared to First Call's price target for each stock.
The Sweet 16 was enjoying a great week until Brexit. The portfolio was down 1.41% for the week and is now up 29.82% year-to-date. The S&P 500 Index is now down 0.32% YTD.
Brexit will have no impact on global oil supply & demand. However, a stronger U.S. dollar does pressure crude oil prices.
The STACK deal that Marathon Oil (MRO) announced on June 20 was more validation of the SCOOP/STACK oil play in Oklahoma. CLR, DVN, NFX and XEC all have significant exposure to SCOOP & STACK. I have increased my valuation of CLR and NFX since last week's report.
It now looks like Devon Energy (DVN) will raise close to $3 Billion from non-core asset sales this year. The money will shore up their balance sheet and set them up for a very aggressive STACK drilling program, that is already underway. Devon, NFX and MRO are "betting the farm" on STACK. If you have not done so already, I strongly encourage all of you to go to the Marathon website and listen to their June 20th webcast. Be sure to download the slides first so you can follow along. Marathon's acquisition is also BIG NEWS for Gastar Exploration (GST), so if you have any interest in that small-cap, you definitely want to listen to the Marathon webcast.
The U.S. natural gas market is tightening. For seven weeks in a row the Ngas storage builds have been SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW the 5-year average. The spread will widen further in July & August as summer heat ramps up demand for power generation and U.S. gas production continues to fall. The EIA's Drilling Productivity Report estimates that U.S. Ngas production will fall by close to 500 Million Cubic Feet Per Day from June to July. For those of you that at "math impaired", this means that U.S. gas production will be 3.0 Billion Cubic Feet Per Day lower from June to December. BTW, production declines are accelerating. The seven largest gas producing basins in the U.S. are now on decline, including the Marcellus and Utica.
Natural gas and NGL prices are moving higher. This is great news for our three "gassers": Antero Resources (AR), Gulfport Energy (GPOR) and Range Resources (RRC).
All of the Sweet 16 produce and sell natural gas and NGLs. You can find each company's production mix at the bottom of their forecast models.
The Wattenberg Field in the DJ Basin has strong economics at $50 oil, but it is somewhat "off the radar screen" for the Wall Street gang. PDC Energy (PDCE) and Synergy Resources (SYRG) are my Top Picks in the Wattenberg Field.
My monthly article for OilPrice.com Premium Members focused on RSP Permian (RSPP). RSPP and SYRG should be in the Sweet 16 today, but the current members are all doing so well that I hate to mess up the team. If you'd like to see my report on RSPP send me an e-mail (dmsteffens@gmail.com) and I will send it to you. I cannot post it to our website.
The STACK video is now on the website. Eventually, I plan to figure out how to do a weekly "podcast" for the EPG website. I am an Old Dog, so learning new stuff like this is hard.
Susan & I are flying to St. Louis today for my father's 90th birthday party on Sunday. My dad is a great guy who served in the Navy and the St. Louis fire department. He has faded the last few years, but he's had a great life. When it comes down to it: Faith, Family and Friends are what count the most. So, quit worrying about Brexit.
It shows my valuation for each stock compared to First Call's price target for each stock.
The Sweet 16 was enjoying a great week until Brexit. The portfolio was down 1.41% for the week and is now up 29.82% year-to-date. The S&P 500 Index is now down 0.32% YTD.
Brexit will have no impact on global oil supply & demand. However, a stronger U.S. dollar does pressure crude oil prices.
The STACK deal that Marathon Oil (MRO) announced on June 20 was more validation of the SCOOP/STACK oil play in Oklahoma. CLR, DVN, NFX and XEC all have significant exposure to SCOOP & STACK. I have increased my valuation of CLR and NFX since last week's report.
It now looks like Devon Energy (DVN) will raise close to $3 Billion from non-core asset sales this year. The money will shore up their balance sheet and set them up for a very aggressive STACK drilling program, that is already underway. Devon, NFX and MRO are "betting the farm" on STACK. If you have not done so already, I strongly encourage all of you to go to the Marathon website and listen to their June 20th webcast. Be sure to download the slides first so you can follow along. Marathon's acquisition is also BIG NEWS for Gastar Exploration (GST), so if you have any interest in that small-cap, you definitely want to listen to the Marathon webcast.
The U.S. natural gas market is tightening. For seven weeks in a row the Ngas storage builds have been SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW the 5-year average. The spread will widen further in July & August as summer heat ramps up demand for power generation and U.S. gas production continues to fall. The EIA's Drilling Productivity Report estimates that U.S. Ngas production will fall by close to 500 Million Cubic Feet Per Day from June to July. For those of you that at "math impaired", this means that U.S. gas production will be 3.0 Billion Cubic Feet Per Day lower from June to December. BTW, production declines are accelerating. The seven largest gas producing basins in the U.S. are now on decline, including the Marcellus and Utica.
Natural gas and NGL prices are moving higher. This is great news for our three "gassers": Antero Resources (AR), Gulfport Energy (GPOR) and Range Resources (RRC).
All of the Sweet 16 produce and sell natural gas and NGLs. You can find each company's production mix at the bottom of their forecast models.
The Wattenberg Field in the DJ Basin has strong economics at $50 oil, but it is somewhat "off the radar screen" for the Wall Street gang. PDC Energy (PDCE) and Synergy Resources (SYRG) are my Top Picks in the Wattenberg Field.
My monthly article for OilPrice.com Premium Members focused on RSP Permian (RSPP). RSPP and SYRG should be in the Sweet 16 today, but the current members are all doing so well that I hate to mess up the team. If you'd like to see my report on RSPP send me an e-mail (dmsteffens@gmail.com) and I will send it to you. I cannot post it to our website.
The STACK video is now on the website. Eventually, I plan to figure out how to do a weekly "podcast" for the EPG website. I am an Old Dog, so learning new stuff like this is hard.
Susan & I are flying to St. Louis today for my father's 90th birthday party on Sunday. My dad is a great guy who served in the Navy and the St. Louis fire department. He has faded the last few years, but he's had a great life. When it comes down to it: Faith, Family and Friends are what count the most. So, quit worrying about Brexit.