Energy Prospectus

I just looked at the two week forecast for the U.S. Very hot in the large eastern cities. Washington DC could see 100 on Saturday. Heat going deep into September across the South and East Coast should keep natural gas demand for power generation higher than normal.

Series of tropical storms moving into the Gulf of Mexico this month should reduce production, although this is not as big of deal as it was "before shale gas".

Long-term: La Nina has replaced El Nino, so this winter should be normal to colder than normal.

Best case for gas prices is that the weather stays warmer than normal into early October and then flips to cold in November. Regardless, if we just have normal weather for the next three months, natural gas in storage will be below the 5-year average when the winter heating season begins. Draws from storage start in Mid-November.

Zacks energy analyst: "Significantly lower year-over-year injection figures over the past 17 weeks have meant that the commodity has been inching closer to the key psychological level of $3 per MMBtu. Moving past the barrier might just support a price breakout in the coming weeks. With this summer likely to turn out longer and hotter than normal, natural gas demand is expected to pick up on the back of elevated power sector consumption due to air-conditioning use. Coupled with the easing production from the major shale plays, natural gas prices are set to rise."