Cimarex Energy (XEC)
Posted: Fri Sep 09, 2016 12:33 pm
From Wells Fargo Equity Research:
Summary. Cimarex Energy offers differentiated exposure to the Permian and
STACK regions and within each, Cimarex’s acreage and operational expertise has
proven to be among the best in class. We forecast 7% and 14% production growth
in 2017E and 2018E, respectively, and view substantial upside to NAV as Cimarex
executes on downspacing tests currently under way. We are initiating coverage
with an Outperform rating and a valuation range of $145-155 per share based on
our net asset value estimate of $150.68 per share. Our EPS estimates for 2016
and 2017 are $0.56 and $3.58, respectively.
Quality Asset Split…Cimarex offers differentiated exposure to the Delaware
Basin and STACK region, two of the most prolific unconventional shale plays in
the Lower 48. Within each basin, Cimarex’s acreage and operational expertise
have proven to be best in class, with well performance tracking ahead of peers.
…Provides Inventory of High-Return Projects. Management consistently
reiterates its focus on rate of return when allocating capital and the data bears
this out. Cimarex has consistently delivered above-average returns on capital and
its current inventory of projects show outsized return potential.
Expecting Continued Growth…We project 7% growth in 2017E and 14%
growth in 2018E (compared to Street estimates of 7% and 8%), driven by
Cimarex’s ability to comfortably add rigs to develop its prolific acreage in the
Delaware and STACK.
…While Maintaining Solid Balance sheet. With an IG rating, net leverage
of 1.6x, and a cash balance of $642MM, Cimarex’s balance sheet is second to none
of its peers’. Along with a balanced commodity split, XEC provides investors with
significant downside risk protection versus other E&Ps, illustrated by 2-year
down-beta to the 12-month WTI strip of 0.68, the lowest among its peers.
Valuation. XEC currently trades at an 11% discount to our NAV calculation of
$150.68 per share. In addition, we believe XEC could potentially realize further
NAV upside of $16.13 per share if downspacing tests prove successful. XEC
trades at 12.4x and 9.2x 2017E and 2018E EV/EBITDAX multiples, which is 0.4x
and 0.6x behind the Permian average, respectively. We believe this discount is
not warranted given the quality of the company’s acreage in both of its plays and
view the shares as having upside potential as XEC converges toward the Permian
pure plays. We set our valuation range at $145-155 per share, reflecting our NAV
calculation and initiate coverage with an Outperform rating.
Summary. Cimarex Energy offers differentiated exposure to the Permian and
STACK regions and within each, Cimarex’s acreage and operational expertise has
proven to be among the best in class. We forecast 7% and 14% production growth
in 2017E and 2018E, respectively, and view substantial upside to NAV as Cimarex
executes on downspacing tests currently under way. We are initiating coverage
with an Outperform rating and a valuation range of $145-155 per share based on
our net asset value estimate of $150.68 per share. Our EPS estimates for 2016
and 2017 are $0.56 and $3.58, respectively.
Quality Asset Split…Cimarex offers differentiated exposure to the Delaware
Basin and STACK region, two of the most prolific unconventional shale plays in
the Lower 48. Within each basin, Cimarex’s acreage and operational expertise
have proven to be best in class, with well performance tracking ahead of peers.
…Provides Inventory of High-Return Projects. Management consistently
reiterates its focus on rate of return when allocating capital and the data bears
this out. Cimarex has consistently delivered above-average returns on capital and
its current inventory of projects show outsized return potential.
Expecting Continued Growth…We project 7% growth in 2017E and 14%
growth in 2018E (compared to Street estimates of 7% and 8%), driven by
Cimarex’s ability to comfortably add rigs to develop its prolific acreage in the
Delaware and STACK.
…While Maintaining Solid Balance sheet. With an IG rating, net leverage
of 1.6x, and a cash balance of $642MM, Cimarex’s balance sheet is second to none
of its peers’. Along with a balanced commodity split, XEC provides investors with
significant downside risk protection versus other E&Ps, illustrated by 2-year
down-beta to the 12-month WTI strip of 0.68, the lowest among its peers.
Valuation. XEC currently trades at an 11% discount to our NAV calculation of
$150.68 per share. In addition, we believe XEC could potentially realize further
NAV upside of $16.13 per share if downspacing tests prove successful. XEC
trades at 12.4x and 9.2x 2017E and 2018E EV/EBITDAX multiples, which is 0.4x
and 0.6x behind the Permian average, respectively. We believe this discount is
not warranted given the quality of the company’s acreage in both of its plays and
view the shares as having upside potential as XEC converges toward the Permian
pure plays. We set our valuation range at $145-155 per share, reflecting our NAV
calculation and initiate coverage with an Outperform rating.