Natural Gas Storage Report - Nov 10
Posted: Fri Nov 11, 2016 7:07 pm
Working gas in storage was 4,017 Bcf as of Friday, November 4, 2016, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 54 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 47 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 189 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,828 Bcf. At 4,017 Bcf, total working gas is above the five-year historical range.
There will probably be another 40-60 Bcf put into storage before the winter heating season begins, so we will begin the winter with more gas in storage than last November.
The last six weeks of the year (the beginning of heating season) set the tone for the U.S. natural gas market. Keep these things in mind.
> Last December was one of the warmest on record, only 244 Bcf was drawn from storage.
> The 5-year average draws for the final six weeks of the year are 386 Bcf.
> The U.S. has a lot more homes that heat with gas than we had five years ago. Gas used for space heating goes up 150-200 Bcf each year.
> Since last winter, five coal fired power plants have been shut down, replaced by gas fired power plants. Gas used for power generation is now a year-round part of demand.
> U.S. natural gas production has declined by 2.5 to 3.0 Bcf per day in the last 12 months
> U.S. natural gas demand has increased by an estimated 2.5 Bcf per day in the last 12 months. Only about 0.5 Bcf per day is for space heating. The big increases are exports and industrial demand.
The next two weeks' storage reports will probably appear bearish in comparison to previous year. The last five weeks of this year s/b be quite bullish, wiping out the surplus to last year. Mother Nature is now in charge. We just need a normal winter to balance the U.S. market.
There will probably be another 40-60 Bcf put into storage before the winter heating season begins, so we will begin the winter with more gas in storage than last November.
The last six weeks of the year (the beginning of heating season) set the tone for the U.S. natural gas market. Keep these things in mind.
> Last December was one of the warmest on record, only 244 Bcf was drawn from storage.
> The 5-year average draws for the final six weeks of the year are 386 Bcf.
> The U.S. has a lot more homes that heat with gas than we had five years ago. Gas used for space heating goes up 150-200 Bcf each year.
> Since last winter, five coal fired power plants have been shut down, replaced by gas fired power plants. Gas used for power generation is now a year-round part of demand.
> U.S. natural gas production has declined by 2.5 to 3.0 Bcf per day in the last 12 months
> U.S. natural gas demand has increased by an estimated 2.5 Bcf per day in the last 12 months. Only about 0.5 Bcf per day is for space heating. The big increases are exports and industrial demand.
The next two weeks' storage reports will probably appear bearish in comparison to previous year. The last five weeks of this year s/b be quite bullish, wiping out the surplus to last year. Mother Nature is now in charge. We just need a normal winter to balance the U.S. market.