Energy Prospectus

Natural gas prices are lower today, but the weather forecast for this week is quite bullish for gas.

Chicago Forecast: https://www.wunderground.com/us/il/chic ... 99999?MR=1

Chicago temps drop from around 40 this morning to teens tonight and then it remains colder than normal for five days.

Gas in storage at 12/31/2016 will be ~3,250 Bcf, ~450 Bcf lower than a year ago and the gap will continue to widen in January. I expect close to a 900 BILLION cubic feet to be taken from U.S. storage in January (compared to the 5-year average of 725 BCF).

My "SWAG" is that storage at the end of March will be a TRILLION cubic feet lower than a year ago on 3/31.

http://celsiusenergy.blogspot.com/p/4weektotal.html

Period Current Projection Range of Projections (Issue Date) Historical Averages 2015 Storage
Minimum Maximum 5-Yr Avg Withdrawal Projected Departure 2015 Withdrawal Projected Departure
Dec 30-Jan 20 -628 BCF

I expect the draw from storage for the week ending January 6 to be ~200 BCF. I think some analysts are missing the fact that U.S. production has declined by ~2 Bcf per day and non-weather related demand has gone up by ~3 Bcf per day.

Last year U.S. ngas storage was 2,480 BCF on April 1. O1 12/31/2016 U.S. ngas storage is ~3,250 BCF, so there is a good chance that we approach 2,480 Bcf by the end of January.

5-year average draws for:
February = ~620 Bcf
March = ~250 Bcf

Assuming non-weather related demand is ~4 Bcf per day tighter and you can see how I come up with my SWAG that storage will be a TRILLION cubic feet tighter at that end of this year's heating season.