Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 2,711 Bcf as of Friday, January 27, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 87 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 266 Bcf less than last year at this time and 59 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,652 Bcf. At 2,711 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

About what was expected. It was rather warm last week.

Raymond James Natural Gas Industry Update

J. Marshall Adkins

Summary

Winter trend continues with 4th consecutive, tighter (weather adj.) withdrawal. This week's withdrawal of 87 Bcf was largely in-line with the consensus estimate of an 85 Bcf withdrawal and higher than our estimate of a 77 Bcf withdrawal. This implies that the market was 3.4 Bcf/d tighter than last year on a weather-adjusted basis and we have averaged 2.7 Bcf/d tighter than last year over the past four weeks. As it stands, the storage deficit of 288 Bcf decreased by 65 to a deficit of 223 Bcf and gas-in-storage now totals 2,711 Bcf.

Fundamentally speaking, 2017 should prove to be a positive year for natural gas prices as demand is likely to be pushed by exports of gas to Mexico and a continued ramp up of LNG exports, while supply should see some effects of lower imports from Canada. When it comes to weather, which is always a black box beyond the upcoming 1-2 weeks, we have seen milder than normal weather materialize for the past few weeks, and it is uncertain whether this will normalize as winter continues.

which still leaves my poor GPOR in the cellar

<<which still leaves my poor GPOR in the cellar>> Me too. And options dead as well, w/ gas futures scraping noses on $3 again. Bob has nailed the strange weather problem. And these hombres <<http://marketrealist.com/2017/02/us-nat ... month-low/>> suggest that the market has priced in expectations; collateral gas from oil-drilling has complicated the rig count; and $$ has diverted to the giddy DJIA btw spikes of nervous pessimism that's kept gold aloft.