Energy Prospectus

I went back and double checked my forecast model for Gulfport Energy. I made a few minor changes, primarily to get all the numbers in the full year income statement to tie in. Nothing major.

My valuation for GPOR stays at $40.00 share, compared to First Call's price target of $31.64.

My updated forecast model will be posted to the EPG website later today.

Gulfport is going to report BIG increases in production quarter-after-quarter this year. 2017 production is expected to increase 45% to 50% YOY. The biggest jump will come when they close the SCOOP acquisition this month.

This one is a "gasser", which is the only reason I see for it trading at such a low multiple of operating cash flow per share.
CFPS
2015A = $3.07
2016A = $2.83
2017E = $3.72 (compare to First Call's estimate of $3.89) < GPOR will generate ~$675 million cash flow from operations in 2017
2018E = $5.45 (compare to First Call's estimate of $5.39)

Gulfport has a strong track record of growth. They got into the Utica Shale play long before anyone else figured it out. They have a large block of Tier One leasehold in the Utica.

When they announced their recent SCOOP acquisition a few Wall Street analysts (none of which have geological expertise) said Gulfport paid too much. IMO Gulfport has a first class technical team. They spent months looking at the deal, so my SWAG is that they did not pay too much.

During my 40 years in this industry one thing that I've found to be true is that you cannot judge an acquisition until several years after it closes. If oil & gas prices go up and GPOR announces dozens of good SCOOP wells, Wall Street will say they were brilliant to make the deal. They definitely needed another core area to grow.

From yesterday's press release:
SCOOP
As previously announced, on December 13, 2016, Gulfport entered into a definitive agreement with Vitruvian to acquire approximately 46,400 net surface acres with multiple producing zones, including the Woodford and Springer formations, in Grady, Stephens and Garvin Counties, Oklahoma. The properties to be acquired in this transaction are located primarily in the over-pressured liquids-rich to dry gas windows of the play and include approximately 48 producing horizontal wells and an additional interest in over 150 non-operated horizontal wells. The acquisition is expected to close in February 2017, subject to the satisfaction of certain closing conditions.

During 2017, and following the closing of the acquisition, Gulfport plans to run four operated horizontal rigs on this SCOOP acreage.

Gulfport has budgeted to drill approximately 19 to 21 gross (16 to 18 net) horizontal wells and turn-to-sales 17 to 19 gross (14 to 16 net) horizontal wells in the SCOOP. In addition, Gulfport plans to participate in non-operated activities taking place on this acreage by other operators that plan to drill approximately 1 to 2 horizontal wells and turn-to-sales 1 to 2 horizontal wells, in each case net to Gulfport’s interest.

I bought a big position in GPOR and based on your bullish reports and your bullish weather forecasts. None of which have happened. I'm a charter member, live in NY so I don't have any value in your numerous luncheons. Why should I listen to you in the future? Your track record on NG sucks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For the record, I have 10,000 shares of GPOR and am down 20%. The rest of my portfolio is up substantially. Worst investments are yours.

The Sweet 16 finished 2016 up 47%. GPOR was the only Sweet 16 stock down in 2016. It is impossible for me to take all the risk out of investing in stocks.

It is extremely important that you diversify your portfolio. NEVER put too much into one stock.

I have been following Gulfport Energy for a long time. It is an incredible growth story. Production was up 31.5% YOY in 2016 and, based on their production guidance, should be up another 45% to 50% this year. That is fantastic growth for a company of this size.

As I said in the previous post, it is way to early to judge their SCOOP acquisition.

I have also lost a lot of money on GPOR and finally just had to mark it off the list. There has to be some reason that it can't get any traction.

I have this same fault, so I am preaching to myself: The biggest difficulty most individual investors have is hanging on to their loosing stocks. We just hate taking losses.

That said, I added GPOR to the Sweet 16 on 1-1-2010 at $11.45/share. Since that date its production has grown steadily from under 10,000 BOE per day to 131,166 BOE per day in Q4 2016 and over 140,000 BOE per day. Q2 2017 production s/b over 180,000 BOE per day.

The share price peaked at over $73/share in March, 2014. So, we had a darn good ride.

"Gassers" are not getting much love from Wall Street these days, which is one problem. Wall Street saying they paid too much for SCOOP is another and the current black cloud hanging over it. As I posted earlier, if they get some good wells the mood can change quickly. Growing production and proven reserves is what gets an upstream company out of the Wall Street Penalty Box.

Go to the GPOR forecast and look at row 48. If my forecast is accurate, that will draw some attention.

Reporting quarter-after-quarter of earnings and production growth usually helps.

What you invest in is totally up to each of you. I just try to give you some tools to help.

I don't have the POWER to control the weather or what Saudi Arabia does. That is up to God.

Still waiting for the updated model.

Well your weather forecasts have been totally wrong thanks to Bastardi. And NG is now under $3. I'm holding on to GPOR because you are saying it is worth $40 per share. I own several other of your stocks, but GPOR was the most undervalued by you so I went overweight. I guess the message is that your forecasts are not worth the paper they are printed on since you don't seem willing to stand behind your own recommendations.

Obviously, GPOR is not worth $40 a share now or anytime in the near future. Yet you kling to this valuation - I guess sooner or later you will be correct.

One last comment - my $53,000 loss on GPOR doesn't pay for my membership. Doubt I will be renewing as all you do is make posts to cya.

Sorry that I cannot control the weather. Good luck with that.

I am sorry that you lost money on GPOR, but 15 of the Sweet 16 were up in 2016. Not too bad for a year of extremely volatile commodity prices. The Sweet 16 finished 2016 up 47% YOY.

Reminder to all: Upstream oil & gas companies are high beta stocks.

It is a good idea to check the National Weather Service forecasts also. https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=na ... ion+center. If there is a difference between private for profit forecasting services and NOAA it just means there is Forecast Uncertainty, which means be careful and protect yourself. Always check NOAA. The private services typically just interpret the same data differently.