Energy Prospectus

Working gas in storage was 2,295 Bcf as of Friday, March 3, 2017, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 68 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 192 Bcf less than last year at this time and 363 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,932 Bcf. At 2,295 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

Thank you Mother Nature for a couple weeks of colder than normal weather in March!

At the end of March, 2016 the winter heating season ended with 2,468 Bcf of natural gas in U.S. storage. It now looks like we will get to March 31, 2017 with approximately 2,100 Bcf in storage because the next two weekly storage reports should drain 150 to 200 Bcf from storage (combined). Back in early January I thought ending storage would be in the 1,700 to 1,800 Bcf range. Thanks to an incredibly warm February we won't get close to that, but we will have more demand this summer to refill storage.

Combine less associated gas with more demand for exports, industrial, power generation and storage refill should result in much better gas and NGL prices this year than we had last year.

Remember:
1. It is not all about the weather and
2. Upstream companies sell more than just crude oil

Take a look at the 10-day forecast for Chicago. We could see a record draw from storage for the week ending March 17.

https://www.wunderground.com/us/il/chic ... 90.1.99999

The 5-year average draw for that week is only -17 Bcf, so a draw over 100 Bcf should get a lot of attention.

If we are lucky enough to see some colder than normal weather in the NE U.S. during the first half of April that would be great. Even small draws from storage in April are very good for ngas prices because it shortens the refill season. Every little bit helps.