Energy Prospectus

As I read the standard news blurbs, the focus is on OPEC production and Saudi production. It seems to me that the real news is about Saudi exports and Iraqi exports. If you look back over the last 8 years, Saudi production has gone up but exports flucuated in the 7.0 to 8.0 range or thereabouts (until the agreement cutting back ). This is because they have a fast growing population and use a lot of energy per person. They are not the culprit in the glut. Iraq exports went from 1.7 (approx) in 2009 to about 3 in 2015 and about 3.5 in 2016. My figures are from charts and not exact but it is obvious that the big swing OPEC supplier has been Iraq. Furthermore, the energy minister in Nov 2016 said that if it wasn’t for the war with ISIS, Iraq could produce 9 million/day. I don’t know of anywhere in the world where there is this big a supply of oil from conventional (not shale) drilling and they are the only country capable of replacing Saudi supplies if they begin to decline.

I agree 100%. I've also heard that Iran is peaked out until they get more outside capital. Who would invest in Iran with Trump in the White House?

IMHO the OPEC cartel knows that they much control supply. It is not to their benefit to flood the global market with oil and crush oil prices. They are the Big Losers in a price war.

What OPEC can do is raise their quotas each year by about 500,000 BOPD since demand goes up by 1.3 MMBbls per day. There s/b room for everyone in a world that will soon be consuming over 100 million bbls per day.