Energy Prospectus

adamlloyd

It's an interesting press release. They are spinning off non core assets, but also "emigrating" (their word) from Canada. Dan, do you have any idea why they would be doing that? Impact on future taxation perhaps?

Adam

adamlloyd

Go to robertbryce.com and click on "podcast".

Adam

adamlloyd

There's a very worthwhile interview with him in Robert Bryce's "Power Hungry" podcast.

Adam

adamlloyd

I have owned quite a few MLPs over many years and have always received my K-1s by the end of March at the absolute latest, but generally early in the month. What sometimes is a nuisance is receiving revised 1099s after the mid April filing date. Consequently I never file early as having to prepare a...

adamlloyd

Dan, Do you still follow this company? It used to be in the High Yield portfolio I believe. It's another one that has completely transformed itself, increasing production by a factor of four in the past couple of years and going from 100% oil to current production of 75% gas/NGLs. Current yield is 5...

adamlloyd

I get nervous when things are going too well. What do you consider is the probability of a windfall profits tax in this country and/or Canada?

Or some other damaging action by either government?

Adam

adamlloyd

One way to absolutely guarantee Republican control of both houses following the mid-terms. Surely even Biden couldn't be that stupid.

adamlloyd

Dan, I think you are too critical of the BP Energy Outlook report which is widely respected and has a ton of good data. This year, for the first time, they offer several possible scenarios based on government policies, trade disputes, the economies of major oil producers etc. Their baseline scenario...

adamlloyd

And the Texans have a bright future too. The game last Sunday was one all of us in Seattle will remember for a long time. It could have gone either way.

Adam

adamlloyd

Anyone who places a value on FCF might want to take a look at CNQ after their deal with Shell (and Marathon). The company forecasts 15% CAGR for the next four years and C$4B annual FCF at strip pricing after the 2.3% dividend. They are a very well managed company and will surely squeeze further bene...

adamlloyd

Don now bullish on oil and gold
http://www.bnn.ca/Video/player.aspx?vid=877340

Adam

adamlloyd

Not that it matters, but as a transplanted Brit let me assure you that the correct term is bollocks, which is slang for testicles and for BS.

Adam

adamlloyd

Who to believe? According to this article Germany's flagship offshore wind farm, the Bard Offshore 1, is a technical and financial disaster.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/09/13/o ... -it-right/

Adam

adamlloyd

Dan, if you are looking at DNR (which may finally be waking up), perhaps you could give us your thoughts on EPM. It's more than tripled since you first recommended it and is approaching your estimate of fair value. I suspect there may be better opportunities elsewhere now. I'm tempted to sell. Thank...

adamlloyd

Does anyone know of a website that has discusses the status of proposed new pipelines and upgrades to existing pipelines, particularly those transporting crude within Canada or from Canada to the U.S.? The Canadian Energy Pipeline Association has some decent maps, and of course Enbridge and TransCan...

adamlloyd

Well yes, any forecast five years out has to taken with a big grain of salt. But CNQ is not really an exploration company, they are mainly focused on exploiting their heavy oil thermal in situ and polymer floods, plus Horizon. So there should be fewer unknowns. They're a bit like Denbury in that reg...

adamlloyd

Does anyone here follow this company? They are forecasting free cash flow of $5+ per share from 2018 onwards (a P/FCF of around 6), once the major capital spending on Horizon is behind them. That's based on $83 WTI and as 22% heavy oil differential. They are about 75% weighted to oil currently. Its ...

adamlloyd

If I recall correctly, previous Denbury presentations made the point that capital expenditures would be decreasing as the major pipelines were completed, leading to steadily increasing free cash flow. This latest presentation states that capital expenditures will be approximately constant through 20...

adamlloyd

Yes I'd definitely be interested.

Adam

adamlloyd

CWEI has acreage. By the way, it should be 30 billion barrels recoverable rather than the 300 billion in the article.
Adam

adamlloyd

The August 7 company presentation has lots of information on the Grizzly oil sands operation, which is due to start production in the second quarter of next year. But what is noticeably lacking is anything on the economics of the whole project, or indeed anything specific on where the bitumen is goi...

adamlloyd

GPOR states that the Utica 1-33H well flows 1,560bpd of Condensate and 1,008 bpd of NGLs. I am showing my ignorance here, but what exactly are "Condensates" (as opposed to NGLs), and what price do they fetch (relative to NGLs)?
Thanks,
Adam

adamlloyd

The negative is disappointing results from Thailand, where the TEW-E well may be non-commercial.

Adam

adamlloyd

Dan -
I think there is an error in your drillers' spreadsheet. What you show as the 2013 P/E ratio is in fact the 2012 ratio. Unless I'm totally screwed up which is always possible.

Adam

adamlloyd

Mark - 1.6billion BOE, 71% oil, 16% NGLs and 13% gas. 45% of 2012 gas production hedged at $5.44.

Adam

adamlloyd

Dan, you'll find lots of discussion on Arcan and Second Wave on the board that mdwitte referenced. I recommend you take a look.

Adam

adamlloyd

What is impressive is that the 1.6 Billion recoverable is based on a 6% recovery factor. The OOIP is 27.9 Billion, around 100 barrels per diluted share. Surely there is a good probability that eventually the company will be able to increase the recovery factor. That seems to be the trend in most of ...

adamlloyd

Talking of drillers, HP looks attractive too after its one third haircut in just a month.

Adam

adamlloyd

Dan - I believe that 80% of Denbury's second half production is hedged with a ceiling price of $100. The hedges improve in 2012 (80% at a ceiling of $128 in the second half).

Adam

adamlloyd

I don't understand why the author at Seeking Alpha makes such a big deal about Dan Themig buying shares. It appears his total purchase was 2,300, which is peanuts. Or am I misreading it?

Adam

adamlloyd

Today's announcement from the BOEM was the final straw for me, so I decided to DUMP while I still had a very modest profit. What does "adequately respond" mean? It's just too unpredictable. "Deep-water oil drilling in U.S. territory will remain suspended until explorers prove they hav...

adamlloyd

BP has just released their forecasts for energy sources and utilization through 2030. A few key points: o Population to increase by 1.4B to around 7B o World energy consumption up 39% from 2010 to 2030 (1.7% pa) compared to 45% in past 20 years o In 2030 the three fossil fuels will each contribute a...

adamlloyd

And let's not forget past Sweet 16 member Nexen. With Brent around $95 the cash flow from their North Sea properties must be approaching $3B p.a., or $5-6 per share. Now if only they could get production going at Long Lake.......

Adam

adamlloyd

Very little new from the ATPG presentation at the Pritchard conference. Al Reese confirmed that Telemark was not on the approved list. He "expects" that the company will get two permits for Telemark and two for Gomez in 2011, one in the first quarter. But nothing is certain.

Adam

adamlloyd

I talked to someone from the company's investor relations department a few minutes ago. He said that the company was closed yesterday, so they only started looking into the situation today. He wouldn't commit on when they would make a formal announcement, but said that they are presenting at some co...

adamlloyd

But does anyone understand how significant this really is? Or is it just more doubletalk from the administration? There still seem to be plenty of hurdles for ATPG to overcome. I look forward to a news release from the company which might put it all in perspective.

Adam

adamlloyd

We do have the ability to have an open chatroom on the website. Would you guys be interested in scheduling an open chat with me once a month just to focus on the Sweet 16 companies?

Great idea. You could give it a try and see how it works out.

Adam

adamlloyd

Dan -
Is there any progress on recording the lunchtime talks and posting them on the website? That would be a major bonus for those of us fortunate enough not to live in Houston, and surely would help increase EPG membership.

Happy New Year to you and your family,
Adam

adamlloyd

"Investors worried that the report showed demand for energy was not picking up, despite positive economic news.....". Bit hard to figure that out considering the report had total product demand up 6.1% over the past four weeks, gasoline up 2.9% and distillates up 4.9%. Personally I'd be de...

adamlloyd

Thanks for the Sweet 16 review, Dan - lots of useful information. With all this talk about the shale plays, I wonder whether you follow Venoco (VQ) at all. The balance sheet is horrible, and it's not for widows or orphans. On the other hand the characteristics of their Monterey shales appear greatly...

adamlloyd

Does anyone here follow Nexen? I listened to their recent Investors'Day webcast, and it seems as though they finally have a plan to get Long Lake up to full production. The North Sea is a huge longterm cash flow generator, and offshore Africa will be soon. They have valuable holdings in the Gulf, an...

adamlloyd

Also, what about Gulfport, with so much of their current production coming from Blanche Bay? I know it's a far cry from deepwater drilling, but commonsense is unlikely to prevail in these circumstances.
Thanks,
Adam

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