Energy Prospectus

Petroleum economist

HOUSAND OAKS, Calif. – Kolibri Global Energy Inc. (the “Company” or Kolibri“) (TSX: KEI, NASDAQ: KGEI) is pleased to provide an operations update on its upcoming wells in its Tishomingo field in Oklahoma and 2026 forecast based on the Company’s current drilling program. Operations & Corporate U...

Petroleum economist

Realized gas prices I agree with Dan that the realized gas price in Dan’s model ($ 4.00/MM Btu excluding hedging) looks too low. With an average Henry Hub gas price of $ 4.90/MM Btu in Q1, I expect for EQT a realized gas prices (excluding hedging) of $ 4.50-4.70/MM btu. Production Dan utilised for ...

Petroleum economist

Timing of 2025 results reporting Hemisphere, far later than any other and oil gas company, will report finally its 2025 results on the 15th of April. Multiple companies (Schlumberger, Halliburton, Phillips 66) in the week thereafter will already report their Q1 results. Hemisphere is really late. M...

Petroleum economist

I modified the 2026 WTI oil prices I use in my ranking model, trying to reflect the events this week in the Middle East. I assessed the impact of the new oil price scenario on Kolibri Global. 2026 WTI prices I kicked off 2026 assuming a 2026 WTI flat at $ 60/bbl. Later I increased this to a flat $ 6...

Petroleum economist

Inplay is handling its cash flow and its capex in a careful way. Inplay acquired Pembina in Q2 2025 for C$ 291 M (203.5 M cash + 9.1 M Inplay shares). The Pembina acquisition more than doubled production – from 9.1 K BoE/d (Q1 2025) to 20.4 K BoE/d (Q2 2025). In light of the doubling of the producti...

Petroleum economist

Business planning For many years I have worked as a business planner/senior economist. The companies I worked for all used a system where in each planning cycle the plans for the next five years are presented. Based on economics and ranking, the approval process than endorsed the drilling proposal ...

Petroleum economist

Dividend • Inplay Oil is paying in 2026 a monthly dividend of C$ 0.09, for an annual total of C$ 1.08. • The dividend equates to a good shareholder return of 6.0%. • Whether the dividend can be sustained remains to be seen. Balance sheet • The Inplay balance sheet is not very strong. • The equity r...

Petroleum economist

Production • The Surge production growth in the Sparky/Mannville is to be recommended. • However, the overall Surge production growth over the last seven years has been limited, and in the near-term future this trend looks to continue. Surge prouction.jpg • The Surge 2026 outlook (23.0 K BoE/d) is ...

Petroleum economist

Oil and gas companies with growth potential Not all 80 oil and gas companies that I track have the same production growth potential. I reviewed the top ten companies which I estimate will have the highest production growth over the period 2026-2030. Growth companies.jpg Requirements for growth • Gro...

Petroleum economist

“THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. – Kolibri Global Energy Inc. today announces that, following thoughtful consideration, the board of directors of Kolibri, or the Board, have resolved to nominate the individuals proposed by Tetragon Partners UK LLP for election to the Board by the shareholders of the Company ...

Petroleum economist

There is no uniform definition of NGL. NGL (=Natural Gas Liquids) is an undefined mix of C2- C6 hydrocarbons (ethane, propane, butane, isobutane, pentane, and hexane). Each of the components have their own application and pricing. As the mix of NGL per company varies, so does the realized NGL price ...

Petroleum economist

Oil is a mixture of a hydrogen-carbon chains, where the hydrocarbons can be alkenes/alkynes, and/or aromatics of various molecular lengths and MW. In addition, oil contains impurities such as sulphur, nitrogen, metals and ash. The relative share of each component determines how hard the oil is to re...

Petroleum economist

I am a long-term investor, not a short-term trader. For trading I lack the short-term insights required to beat others. As a long-term investor I can rely on analysing company fundamentals, picking the good ones and then just being patient. Some of the best long-term investments in my opinion are th...

Petroleum economist

Kolibri Global – Modest 2025 results, no outlook, still number 1 in the ranking Kolibri is a small US company producing oil and gas from the shallow Caney and Sycamore zones of the Tishomingo Field in Central Oklahoma. The deeper zones are operated by Exxon. Shareholders voted in November 2025 to i...

Petroleum economist

Logan is a small Canadian gas producer, which came into existence in early 2023 as a spin-off from Spartan Delta. In July 2023 Logan acquired the Spartan Delta Montney assets located in the Simonette, Pouce Coupe, and the Flatrock areas. In 2024 Logan acquired additional assets at North Simonette, A...

Petroleum economist

Infinity is borrowing $ 550 M by means of a $ 550 M 2031 7.625% senior note. “MORGANTOWN, W. Va.- Infinity Natural Resources, Inc. (INR) today announced that its subsidiary, Infinity Natural Resources, LLC (the “Issuer”), priced its previously announced private placement (the “Notes Offering”) of $5...

Petroleum economist

I have added Infinity Natural Resources to my ranking system. It looks like a good prospect, but it will have no or limited returns. Infinity Natural Resources came in existence in early 2021 and has been listed on the stock exchange since Feb 2025 after an IPO at $ 20/share. Infinity is a small gro...

Petroleum economist

Headwater Exploration is a small Canadian exploration company producing heavy oil in Alberta. Headwater also owns the McCully gas field in New Brunswick which produces gas in the winter gas for eastern Canada. Summary Headwater reported solid 2025 returns. Headwater Exploration reserves have been fa...

Petroleum economist

Journey Energy – Mixed 2025 Results Journey Energy is a small Canadian company, operating conventional oil and gas fields in southern Alberta, a.o. a water flood at Ante Creek, and a polymer flood at Medicine Hat. In 2024 Journey Energy joined for 30% in a JV with Spartan Delta in the Duvernay west...

Petroleum economist

Strathcona Oil is a midsize heavy oil producer with a concentrated asset base in the Cold Lake and Lloydminster regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan. In mid-2025 Strathcona sold in 2025 its Montney Kakwa, Prairie and Groundbirch assets for C$ 2.8 B and made an unsuccessful bid for MEG Energy. Waterou...

Petroleum economist

Rubellite Energy is a small Canadian company, which produces heavy oil from the Clearwater and the Mannville formations in the Deep Basin in eastern Alberta. Gas/NGL is produced from East Edson (operated by Tourmaline Oil). Rubellite acquired in late 2024 Buffalo Mission and merged with Perpetual En...

Petroleum economist

Peyto Exploration is a mid-size Canadian gas producer (ranked fifth in Canada), operating conventional gas fields at Cutbank, Kakwa, Greater Sundance/Edson and Greater Brazau in the Deep Basin in Alberta. Peyto acquired in late 2023 the Repsol Canada assets in the Greater Sundance/Edson area for US$...

Petroleum economist

Athabasca is a small Canadian oil company, producing heavy oil from Leismer and Hangingstone, and lighter oil/NGL/gas from the Duvernay shales in Alberta. Summary Athabasca reported normal 2025 results. Reserves reduced slightly but still are very extensive. Production was as expected and will incre...

Petroleum economist

Riley Exploration produces oil and gas from 95,000 acres of the North West shelf in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico. Riley acquired in mid-2025 the assets from Silverback for $ 142 M. Riley divested in 2025 its Dovetail midstream assets for $ 111 M. Summary Riley reported very good 2025 results....

Petroleum economist

Most of the companies that Dan mentioned are very liquid oriented with oil + NGL levels at 80-85% or higher. Exceptions are Rubellite (67% liquids), Inplay Oil (60%), and Northern Oil and Gas (54%). Not all companies will benefit in the same way from higher oil prices, mostly as they have hedged a s...

Petroleum economist

Range Resources – Solid 2025 results Range Resources is a medium-large US gas producer, producing gas from 510,000 acres in the Marcellus shale in NE and SW Pennsylvania. Summary Range Resources reported solid 2025 results. Reserves were flat, but extensive. The RRR was OK. Q4 production was as anti...

Petroleum economist

Gulfport is an US gas company, producing gas from the Marcellus and Utica Shale (Ohio) and from the SCOOP (Oklahoma). Gulfport came out from Chapter 11 in mid-2021. Summary Gulfport reported modest 2025 results. Reserves showed a modest increase. Q4 production was slightly below expectation. Long-te...

Petroleum economist

Diamondback is oil and gas operator in the Delaware, Midland, and Central basins of the Permian in west Texas. Diamondback merged in late 2024 with Endeavour. Diamondback owns 57% of Viper Energy. In mid-2025 Diamond back acquired Double Eagle for $ 4.45 B ($ 3.0 B cash) and transferred some assets ...

Petroleum economist

Whitecap is a mid-cap Canadian oil and gas producer, operating conventional and unconventional oil and gas fields Alberta and Saskatchewan. In May 2025 Whitecap merged with Veren. Summary Whitecap reported solid 2025 results. Reserves bookings were good. Production was slightly above expectation and...

Petroleum economist

Spartan Delta is a small Canadian gas producer, operating in the Deep basin and in the Duvernay. Spartan Delta business plan is to grow its reserves and production, and then sell them off to a third party, as what happened with the Montney assets in 2023. Summary Spartan reported great 2025 results....

Petroleum economist

Ajootian, I agree.
My estimated EQT realized gas price for Q1 is $ 5.09/MM/Btu, which in my model yields a Q1 eps of $ 1.93.
The EQT collars for Q1 with a bottom of $ 4.25/MM Btu, and a ceiling of $ 6.29/MM Btu should not influence this.

Petroleum economist

Peyto Exploration – 2025 Reserves and production Peyto Exploration is a mid-size Canadian gas producer (ranked fifth in Canada), operating conventional gas fields at Cutbank, Kakwa, Greater Sundance/Edson and Greater Brazau in the Deep Basin in Alberta. Peyto - map.jpg Peyto reported excellent 2025 ...

Petroleum economist

Cenovus is a major Canadian upstream/downstream company, producing heavy oil from oil sands using Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage (SAGD). Cenovus also produces conventional oil and gas, some outside Canada. Cenovus operates a series of refineries. The profit/loss of the downstream section normally i...

Petroleum economist

DENVER, Feb. 17, 2026 /PRNewswire/ - Ovintiv Inc. (OVV) announced today that it has entered into a definitive agreement to sell its Anadarko assets, located in Oklahoma, to an undisclosed buyer, for cash proceeds of $3.0 billion. The sale includes approximately 360 thousand net acres, which represe...

Petroleum economist

Expand Energy produces gas and associated liquids from the Appalachian Marcellus formation in Pennsylvania and West Virginia and the Haynesville Shale in NW Louisiana. Expand Energy is the result of the 2024 merger of Chesapeake and Southwestern. Expand Energy is the largest gas producer in the US. ...

Petroleum economist

EQT is one of the largest gas producers in the US, producing gas and associated liquids from the Marcellus shale in the Appalachian basin. EQT acquired in mid-2025 the Olympus assets for $ 1.3 B. Summary EQT reported decent 2025 results. Reserves increased, partially due to Olympus acquisition. Q4 p...

Petroleum economist

Comstock Resources, Antero Resources and CNX Resources all reported their 2025 results. The 2025 results indicate similarities, but also highlight major differences between the three gas companies. Comparing the 2025 data, the reason for the high Comstock share price is a mystery to me....... Reserv...

Petroleum economist

CNX Resources – 2025 reserves Two weeks after its 2025 results, CNX reported also its 2025 reserves: • CNX reserves have been variable over time but over the period 2019-2025 have increased with 15% from 8.425 tcfe (2019) to 9.662 tcfe (2025). • Proven reserves increased in 2025 with 13% from 8.537...

Petroleum economist

Antero Resources is a mid-size gas producer, producing gas from the Marcellus and Utica shales in Colorado, Ohio, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania. Antero announced in December 2025 a $ 2.8 B HG Energy II acquisition in the Marcellus shales and a $ 0.8 B divestment in the Attica shales. Summary Anter...

Petroleum economist

LONDON, Feb. 9, 2026 -- Tetragon Partners UK LLP, the controller of a significant shareholding in Kolibri Global Energy Inc., today announced that it has requested that the board of directors of Kolibri consider the nomination of three highly qualified, independent nominees—Glen Brown, Lee Canaan, ...

Petroleum economist

Attachie I thought, and still think that the ARC resources 2025 results were quite good. The market dropped the share price today with 11-13% for only one reason: Attachie. • Attachie is a condensate-rich natural gas play (49% liquids, 51% gas). • Attachie phase I with a capacity of 25-30 K BoE/d c...

Petroleum economist

ARC Resources (Can) is the 3rd largest Canadian gas producer, producing oil, gas, condensate and NGL from the Montney basin in Alberta and NE British Columbia. ARC bought in mid-2025 for C$ 1,695 M the Montney Kakwa assets from Strathcona with 35-40 K BoE/d. Summary ARC reported good 2025 results. P...

Petroleum economist

Magnolia is a small US oi producer, operating 625,000 acres with light tight oil in the Eagle Ford (concentrated in the Giddings area) and in the Austin Chalk in south Texas. Summary Magnolia reported good 2025 results. Reserves are relatively low, but kept growing on an annual basis due to a good R...

Petroleum economist

Yesterday the merger of Devon and Coterra was announced. Merging an oil company like Devon (73% liquids, 27% gas) and a gas company Coterra (38% liquids, 62% gas) to me is like merging a soccer club and a football club – they are completely different branches of sport. Also I think that operations a...

Petroleum economist

Devon fluids are 72% liquids and 28% gas. Gas revenues were only 9% of the total revenues in the first nine months of 2025.

There are companies around which will profit a lot more than Devon if the current gas price upswing of gas in 2026 is maintained.

Petroleum economist

CNX is a mid-size US gas producer, producing gas and associated liquids from the Marcellus and Utica shales in the Appalachian. CNX acquired in January 2025 the Apex Energy II assets for $ 505 M. Summary CNX reported mixed 2025 results. Reserves were not yet reported. Q4 production was slightly lowe...

Petroleum economist

Headwater Exploration is a small Canadian exploration company producing heavy oil in Alberta. Headwater also owns the McCully gas field in New Brunswick which produces gas in the winter gas for eastern Canada. Headwater reported its 2025 production and reserves. Headwater map.jpg Reserves • Headwate...

Petroleum economist

Changes in shareholders • Shell is sounding out buyer interest for up to 30% of its stake in LNG Canada,. Cost to buyer could be as much as $15 billion including all commitments. • Mitsubishi in early stages of exploring options for its 15% stake. • LNG Canada Phase 1 has been operational since Jun...

Petroleum economist

Bloomberg has been spreading a story on a potential merger between Devon Energy and Coterra. In some areas Devon and Coterra are similar companies, while in other areas they are very different. Area of operation and synergies • Devon and Coterra both have large positions in the Permian Basin. • Devo...

Petroleum economist

Calgary, Alberta – January 5, 2026 – Spartan Delta Corp is pleased to announce its guidance for 2026 and an operations update following the successful completion of its 2025 drilling program. 2026 BUDGET AND GUIDANCE Spartan is pleased to provide its financial and operating guidance for 2026 focuse...

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