Energy Prospectus

Petroleum economist

Import tariffs and inflation. US import tariffs will ignite inflation. Higher prices of imported goods due to import taxes will enable US manufacturers to increase their prices without losing market share. This will cause inflation to spike. An example of this happening in real life were the US ste...

Petroleum economist

Hemisphere is a small Canadian operator operating a polymer flood in the Atlee Buffalo field in Alberta. Hemisphere is testing a polymer pilot in the Marsden area in 2024/2025. 2024 reporting Hemisphere reported 2024 reserves. For details see the Hemisphere Energy website. The published 2024 reserve...

Petroleum economist

SM Energy currently ranks sky high in my 84 oil and gas company ranking. This week SM Energy sits as 2nd, although in some recent weeks it even has ended up sitting at the top of the ranking. The reason for the high ranking is that the SM Energy share price in 2025 has dropped substantially, while i...

Petroleum economist

Dan, I do not believe “ coal is part of common sense ”. Coal fired power stations compared to gas fired power stations have: (1) higher capital costs, (2) longer lead and construction times, (3) more complex coal supply and storage systems, (4) do not have the capability follow the demand in the day...

Petroleum economist

Writing above, I have begun to realize that it is well possible that my realized oil price for Hemisphere could be quite conservative. I leave the oil price where it was for the time being until Hemisphere publishes its 2024 results (early April?). The realized oil price could be the reason that the...

Petroleum economist

Most of the Canadian oi and gas companies that I track surprised in Q4 on the positive side with their profits. The common cause for the surprise was higher than expected realized oil price. Derivation of realized oil prices In my ranking model I base my expectations for realized oil prices per comp...

Petroleum economist

Inplay Oil is a small Canadian oil and gas company, operating in the Cardium and Belly River in Alberta. In February 2025 Inplay announced the acquisition of Pembina Cardium assets from Obsidian. The acquisition will close in April 2025. The acquisition will transform Inplay, a.o. by more than doubl...

Petroleum economist

Tesla hurting from import tariffs Tesla is hurting more and more from the US import tariffs. Tesla international sales have been suffering massively from a buyers boycott as a protest against of the US import tariffs. On top of this Tesla US prices soon will have to increase as a consequence of the...

Petroleum economist

Headwater is a small Canadian company producing heavy oil in Alberta. Headwater also owns the McCully gas field in New Brunswick which produces gas in the winter gas for eastern Canada. Headwater has been a on fast growth path since 2019 and is living up to the second part of their name. Summary Hea...

Petroleum economist

Saturn Oil and Gas is a Canadian oil producer established in 2021. Saturn has quickly grown though a series of acquisitions. It now operates a number of light oil fields in Saskatchewan and Alberta. Summary Saturn 2024 results were reasonably good. Reserves grew fast, but this again was due to acqui...

Petroleum economist

Kelt Exploration is a small Canadian gas/liquid producer, operating on 569.000 acres in Alberta and British Columbia. Summary Kelt reported very strong 2024 results. Reserves continued autonomous growth. Production is growing fast. Production and profit exceeded expectations. The balance sheet is in...

Petroleum economist

Kolibri Global reported excellent 2024 reserves results. Proven reserves • Kolibri proven reserves have been flat over the period 2019-2023, with a maximum of 34.1 M BoE (2021) and a minimum of 32.3 M BoE (2023). • In 2024 the proven reserves increased with an impressive 8.1 M BoE (=24%) from 32.3 M...

Petroleum economist

Cliff, you are correct. Canada has indeed tariffs above 200% on dairy products imported from the US - for example, 298.5% for above-maximum butter and 245.5% for above-maximum cheddar cheese. These high tariffs however kick-in only after the US has hit a certain quantity of tariff-free dairy sales t...

Petroleum economist

Rubellite Energy is a small Canadian company, which produces heavy oil from the Clearwater and the Mannville formations in the Deep Basin in eastern Alberta and gas/NGL at East Edson Summary Rubellite reserves are rapidly expanding. The RRR is consistently high. Production is growing. Profitability ...

Petroleum economist

Peyto Exploration is a Canadian mid-size gas producer (ranked fifth in Canada), operating conventional gas fields in the Deep Basin in Alberta. Summary Peyto Exploration reported solid 2024 results. Peyto has ample growing reserves and also the production is growing fast. The balance sheet is in a r...

Petroleum economist

Merger of Whitecap and Veren Summary I have completed a first pass evaluation of the announced merger of Whitecap and Veren. The overall result, based on the latest share prices, indicates that the merged company can be an attractive investment. Reserves are ample, production growing, the balance s...

Petroleum economist

Cliff, thanks for an excellent summary on tariffs. Two remarks: one on VAT and one dairy products. VAT Many countries in the world levy a Value Added Tax (VAT). This tax is a sales tax applicable to any goods sold in the county, independent whether the goods are locally manufactured or imported. VAT...

Petroleum economist

With the implementation of the ill-advised US import tariffs, a global trade war is getting started. As a consequence, most economist predict a fall of the US GDP and an increase in US inflation. This at a time that the US economy is already displaying signs of cooling off. Consumer confidence is do...

Petroleum economist

In his State of the Union speech last week president Trump once again uttered one of his favorite phrases: “Drill, Baby, Drill”. Energy secretary Chris Wright echoed this week this battle cry. The question is ”drill at what”???? It is that time of the year where most US companies have reported their...

Petroleum economist

The merger of Whitecap and Veren causes some significant share price movements today. Veren goes up +12-13% and Whitecap goes down -13%. The Whitecap share price dip will be an unpleasant surprise for shareholders. I think that the share price movements just demonstrate that Veren was undervalued ve...

Petroleum economist

CALGARY, AB, March 10, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Whitecap Resources Inc. ("Whitecap") (TSX: WCP) and Veren Inc. ("Veren") (TSX: VRN) (NYSE: VRN) are pleased to announce a strategic combination to create a leading light oil and condensate producer with concentrated assets in the Albert...

Petroleum economist

Yangarra is a small Canadian gas producer, producing conventional gas and NGL in the Cardium sands in Alberta. If you had bought Yangarra shares in early 2022 you would have paid C$ 1.73, while at the end of last week the share price was $ 1.02 – a drop of 42%. If I had bought at the peak of C$ 4.00...

Petroleum economist

Ring Energy is a small oil company, producing conventional oil in the Permian basin, the Northwest shelf and the Delaware basin in Texas. Summary 2024 results were close to expectation. 2024 reserves were up, mainly in NGL. Production is on a continuous growth path. The balance sheet is mixed with a...

Petroleum economist

Dan, I do agree that the democrats misbehaved. Democrats at the moment have no power and do not offer a feasible alternative to the Republican party. However, Republicans also misbehaved. While Trump is destroying the free world (=stopping all aid to Ukraine), killing world free trade (=starting tra...

Petroleum economist

Riley Exploration produces conventional oil and gas from 58,000 acres in the NW shelf of the Permian in west Texas and New Mexico. Summary Riley reported good 2024 results. Reserves grew substantially and the strong production growth continued. The balance sheet improved and is now in reasonable/goo...

Petroleum economist

Athabasca is a Canadian company producing heavy oil and lighter oil/gas from the Duvernay shales in Alberta. Summary Athabasca reported strong 2024 results. Reserves are extensive and are one of the highest in industry. Production is growing at a high rate, both in heavy oil, as well as in light oil...

Petroleum economist

NuVista Energy is a mid-size Canadian gas producer operating in the Montney play in western Alberta. Nuvista produces from conventional gas/condensate reservoirs. Summary NuVista reported 2024 results close to expectation. NuVista Energy reserves are ample. 2024 reserves are yet to be reported but i...

Petroleum economist

“Today, after a 30-day pause, the United States administration has decided to proceed with imposing 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian exports and 10 per cent tariffs on Canadian energy. Let me be unequivocally clear – there is no justification for these actions. “While less than 1 per cent of the fen...

Petroleum economist

Strathcona is a midsize Canadian oil producer in Alberta. Summary Strathcona Resources reported strong 2024 results. Proven reserves are extensive and the RRR was high. Combined they enable extensive production growth. Production was as expected. The balance sheet needs some reinforcement. Profit wa...

Petroleum economist

WTI operates conventional oil and gas offshore in GoM on the shelf and in deeper water. Summary Normally I only write on oil and gas companies which rank in my top 25. W&T Offshore (WTI) ranks 84th and last, so this piece is an exception. The reason for writing on WTI is that it is such an unusu...

Petroleum economist

Allen,

Any analysis of a gas producer like EQT, which does not contain the word "gas price" is best ignored. This applies to the simplywallst.com analysis of EQT. Computer generated pulp.

Petroleum economist

Duvernay and in Southwest Saskatchewan. Summary 2024 reserves were above expectation thanks to high autonomous reserves bookings. Q4 production exceeded Q3 production, thus indicating that the problems with well designs experienced in Q3 are in the past. The balance sheet improved thanks to divestme...

Petroleum economist

Allen, The market dislike to the Civitas 2024 results is not sitting in the 2024 profits, costs, and production (these were fine), but is located in the proven reserves and future production prospects. Also, the balance sheet is weak with lower shareholder returns as a result. Reserves Civitas repor...

Petroleum economist

Summary Diamondback reported good 2024 results. Q4 production was well above expectation. As a consequence, 2024 profit exceeded expectations. Reserves increased due to the Endeavor acquisition. The RRR was bit low. Production should continue to grow. Long-term debt is too high and Diamondback is i...

Petroleum economist

Spartan Delta is a small Canadian gas producer, operating in Alberta and British Columbia. Spartan Delta reported 2024 results and preliminary reserves. Summary Spartan Delta 2024 results mostly exceeded expectations. Profits were above expectation due to better-than-expected realized energy prices....

Petroleum economist

Peyto Exploration revealed on the 20th of February some details of their 2024 reserves. https://www.peyto.com/Files/News/2025/2024ReservesPressReleaseFinal.pdf Proven reserves Proven reserves increased by a 5.5% increased from 4.98 tcfe (2023) to 5.26 tcfe (2024). The 2024 proven reserves are equiva...

Petroleum economist

Inplay announced the C$ 309 M acquisition from Obsidian of Pembina Cardium assets. The deal is to be closed in April 2025. Inplay will pay C$ 220 M cash, C$ 85 M in shares and C$ 4.5 M in the form of small non-core assets. The cash part will be financed via an expanded credit facility, a non-revolvi...

Petroleum economist

Whitecap is a mid-cap Canadian oil and gas company, operating oil and gas assets in Western Canada (Northern Alberta and British Columbia, Central Alberta, and Saskatchewan). Summary Whitecap reported solid 2024 results. Whitecap reserves were as per expectation and the 2024 RRR was very good. Produ...

Petroleum economist

Summary SM Energy reported solid 2024 results. Reserves were as expected, although the 2024 RRR was a bit low. 2024 production was close to expectation and has grown significantly since 2023. Production growth can continue at low rates. The balance sheet has been impacted by the XCL acquisition and...

Petroleum economist

Vital Energy 2024 results – good profit and production, disappointing reserves. Summary Vital 2024 adjusted results were above expectation. 2024 production and profit were higher than expected. Vital reported a 2024 net loss due a large non-cash impairment charge on oil and gas properties. The repo...

Petroleum economist

Summary Devon reported solid 2024 results. The 2024 reserves are not extensive, but the reserves replacement is very sound, allowing the production to stay flat or slightly increase over time. The balance sheet needs reinforcement and limits shareholder returns. Despite this, shareholder returns ar...

Petroleum economist

In 2023 the NPV10 value of the Kolibri proven reserves (=P1) was $399.5 M. The NPV10 value of the proven + probable reserves (=P2) was $ 588.7 M. With 37.5 M Kolibri shares, this equates to $ 10.60 (P1) and $ 15.75 (P2) per share. With the new 1.5 mile well concept adding value to the same reserves ...

Petroleum economist

Peyto is a mid-size Canadian gas producer. A date for financial 2024 results and reserves has not yet been announced, but 2024 production results have been shared. Production • Peyto in its January monthly report shared the details of its Q4 production (133.0 K BoE/d) and its 2024 production (125.1 ...

Petroleum economist

Dan, I assume you made a typo. MGY = Magnolia Oil and Gas is not a gas company. Magnolia gas is 29.2% of the total fluids and in 2024 gas revenues are only 13% of the total revenues. Outside the gas producers you mention, there are three gas producers that I like in Canada - NuVista, Kiwetinohk and ...

Petroleum economist

Bonterra Energy is a Canadian small cap (market value=U$ 93 M), producing conventional oil and gas from the Pembina Cardium and the Charlie Lake area in Alberta. Bonterra reported solid 2024 proven reserves. Financial 2024 reporting will come at a later date. Proven reserves Proven reserves increase...

Petroleum economist

Rubellite has not yet shared a date for the publication of its 2024 results, the 2024 reserves and the 2025 outlook. If 2024 is something to go by, then results will not be published until mid-March. Rubellite at one moment today was down 3.2% to C$ 1.92 and minus 8.1% over 2025 YTD. I think the dec...

Petroleum economist

Civitas has many good things going for it. Its balance sheet, recovering from the Vencer acquisition, is in a reasonable state. Thanks to the strong FCF by late 2025 the balance sheet should be in a good state. Civitas is very profitable and will have in 2025 a PE of only 6.1. Civitas will pay in 20...

Petroleum economist

Peyto Exploration 2025 share price The disappointing Peyto Exploration share price performance in 2025 (-6.5% YTD) has everything to do with an overdone reaction on import tariffs fears and very little with fundamentals. The Peyto reserves are strong, production growth is high, the balance sheet is...

Petroleum economist

Production The updated Inplay 2024 production outlook (8.700-8.750 BoE/d) was disappointing. The outlook is closing in on the bottom end of previous outlook (8,700-9,000 BoE/d) which as issued in November 2024. The 2025 outlook (8,650-9,150 BoE/d) was lower than I expected. The 2025 outlook is only...

Petroleum economist

Similar as Dan, I have not yet included the effects of Marsden polymer pilot in my economic ranking model. I am waiting for the results of the pilot to be available in mid-2025 before I will do this. During my career as a petroleum economist/business planner I have been involved in multiple polymer ...

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