Energy Prospectus

dan_s

I am up 150% on my SEI Call Options in six weeks. Should buy more.

dan_s

SEI is now up 300% since they announced the decision to get into the Distributed Power Business. It makes me look good, but I had no idea they were going to do it. I do think the share price could go to $50, which is why I purchased Call Options instead of the stock. I wish I'd purchased a lot more ...

dan_s

Trading Economics WTI Oil WTI crude oil futures climbed over $70/bbl on Wednesday afternoon, marking a third consecutive session of gains as demand prospects brightened and investors anticipated a Federal Reserve rate cut next week. > China's announcement of a looser monetary policy for 2025 to rev...

dan_s

OPEC lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for 2024 and 2025, amid a slowness in economic growth in key markets such as China and India. The group now expects global oil demand to increase by 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2024, down 210,000 bpd from its previous forecast . For 2025, ...

dan_s

This is why the Jan25 NYMEX contract for HH natural gas is up ~7% today., https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/what-is-a-polar-vortex-chicago-is-on-target-to-see-brutal-cold-for-the-next-few-days/ar-AA1vFI5a Sub/Zero temps in Chicago can reduce natural gas in storage by 50 Bcf Per Day, esp...

dan_s

AR and RRC are likely additions to the Sweet 16. CRK is a possible addition, but higher concentration risk. CRK will be extremely profitable if Haynesville gas moves over $4.00/mcf. All of the current Sweet 16 produce a significant amount of natural gas and NGLs. On the Sweet 16 Summary spreadsheet,...

dan_s

This is bullish because lots of analysts (including me) were expecting an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories. EIA might be "correcting" their previous overstatements of crude oil inventories. In my opinion, the global oil market is much tighter than the current False Paradigm that we ...

dan_s

Highlights: Global oil production. Growth in oil production next year will come mostly from non-OPEC countries because of ongoing production restraint on the part of OPEC+. At its December 5 meeting, OPEC+ announced that it would delay production increases until April 2025. Those increases had been...

dan_s

Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures eased toward $68 per barrel on Tuesday afternoon as concerns about the collapse of the Syrian government subsided, but the market found support from China's promise to step up policy stimulus. > On Monday, the prime minister of ousted Syrian President Assad a...

dan_s

CIVI is grossly oversold because the BOD decided to pay only the Base Dividend of $0.50/share in December. They decided to use the variable portion to buyback stock, which I believe was a smart move since the share price is below book value. Civitas is a very profitable company with a free cash flow...

dan_s

Bryden Wright, President of ROK Resources (ROK.V and ROKRF) will be joining me for an update on the Company’s successful 2024 drilling program and a preview of what ROK has planned for 2025. My forecast/valuation model for ROK can be found on the EPG website under the Small-Caps tab. ROK reported Ne...

dan_s

Volt Lithium is on my Watch List. I am expecting them to announce details of their Permian Basin DLE project early in 2025. CALGARY, Alberta, Dec. 10, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Volt Lithium Corp. (TSXV: VLT | OTCQB: VLTLF I FSE: I2D) ("Volt" or the "Company") announces that the C...

dan_s

OKE is one of the large-cap midstream companies in our Yield Income Portfolio. At the time of this post it was trading at $105.37 > The share price is up 50.07% YTD > Per my forecast, 2024 revenues should be $21.9 billion, compared to $17.7 billion in 2023. > 2025 revenues should be $28 to $30 billi...

dan_s

Natural gas prices are on the climb and this climb is about to intensify in the first months of the new year as seasonal demand hits its peak in the northern hemisphere. That’s bad news for struggling economies. Gas prices in Europe, Asia, and North America have made solid gains this year. Reuters’ ...

dan_s

Don Simmons, Hemisphere's CEO made a very informative presentation at our Houston luncheon today. > I have a HIGH level of confidence in my forecast/valuation model of Hemisphere. My current valuation of HMENF is $3.16US per share. > Q4 production should be close to 3,750 Boepd only because they've ...

dan_s

Hemisphere Energy, one of my Top Picks in our High Yield Income Portfolio will be hosting a luncheon in Dallas on December 10. Ocean Prime Luncheon: 12 Noon 2101 Cedar Springs Road Dallas, TX 75201 (214) 965-0440 EPG members can attend. You must register by phone or email to Goal Capital: Liz Olson ...

dan_s

Unit Corporation (OTCQX: UNTC) recently announced that its board of directors have declared the following cash dividends: a quarterly cash dividend of $1.25 per share of common stock for the fourth quarter of 2024 to be paid on December 27, 2024, to shareholders of record as of the close of business...

dan_s

I doubt it. I think he wants to leave the stock to his children, but anything is possible.

dan_s

Note from Keith Kohl: "We knew it was coming, it was only a question of how soon OPEC+ would announce the extension of its production cut deal. Recently, the group decided to extend production cuts until the end of 2026 to assess the stability of global oil demand. All year, concerns have been ...

dan_s

https://x.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1864804141735842253

Russia wants to end the war in Ukraine. Team Biden does not want to end the war because they at "Money Laundering" by pumping $Billions into Ukraine which circles back to the Democrats.

dan_s

CRGY closed at $14.20 on December 6th. On December 3rd the Company announced a significant acquisition of assets in the South Texas Eagle Ford that are producing ~20,000 Boepd of current production (~70% liquids) from Ridgemar Energy. To get an idea of what the Company will be acquiring in Q1 2025 g...

dan_s

The TTF, the European benchmark for gas prices, increased by 18.9% to $14.80 per mmbtu by the end of November. Gas storage declined to 85.6% on November 30, 10% lower than storage in the same month last year. However, it remained within the average of the last three years. Gazprom’s decision on Nove...

dan_s

Location: Maggiano's on Post Oak.

Doors open at 11:15

Speaker: Don Simmons, Hemisphere Energy's CEO

dan_s

We got home at 5:15 PM. Great trip, but always good to be home with the dogs (Ollie and Ziggy).

I will be working on Sunday to prepare for Monday's luncheon in Houston.

dan_s

Susan and I are flying back to Houston today from Puerto Vallarta. We should be home by 4pm. We had a group of 15 on this trip and we had a wonderful time. Perfect weather as usual in December. I did not catch any fish and we only saw five whales, but the boat trips were still fun. Outstanding staff...

dan_s

PetroTal is a publicly traded, tri‐quoted (TSX: TAL) (AIM: PTAL) (OTCQX: PTALF) oil and gas development and production Company domiciled in Calgary, Alberta, focused on the development of oil assets in Peru. PetroTal’s flagship asset is its 100% working interest in the Bretaña Norte oil field in Per...

dan_s

Canada does not withhold income taxes on capital gains because they have no way of knowing your basis in the stock.

Any taxes that Canada withholds are refunded as a foreign tax credit when you file your US tax return.

dan_s

JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram raised the firm’s price target on Permian Resources (PR) to $19 from $17 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. In 2025, the firm expects natural gas producers to benefit from “three powerful secular demand trends:” the build-out of significant liquefied natural ...

dan_s

TipRanks 12-6-2024: "In the last 3 months, 10 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for VNOM. The average price target among the analysts is $57.30." On 12/1 Goldman Sachs increased their price target to $70.

dan_s

JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram raised the firm’s price target on Viper Energy (VNOM) to $51 from $43 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. In 2025, the firm expects natural gas producers to benefit from “three powerful secular demand trends:” the build-out of significant liquefied natural gas...

dan_s

It is official: OPEC+ countries agreed to postpone the start of oil production increases by three months until April 2025, simultaneously extending the full unwinding of output cuts by a year until end-2026 as the oil group confronts rising non-OPEC production. In a widely anticipated move, OPEC+ po...

dan_s

This one is definitely a candidate for our High Yield Income Portfolio. By mid-December we should have all of the profiles for the Small-Cap and High Yield portfolio companies updated. After that I will be extending my forecast/valuation models into 2026. After that, I will be taking a look at sever...

dan_s

Working gas in storage was 3,937 Bcf as of Friday, November 29, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 30 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 185 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 284 Bcf above the five-year average of 3,653 Bcf. At 3,937 Bcf, total working ...

dan_s

My current valuation is $35/share . Solaris Energy Infrastructure, Inc. (NYSE:SEI) ("Solaris" or the "Company"), today announced a financial and operational update for the fourth quarter 2024 as well as updates to its growth capital program to further support the Solaris Power S...

dan_s

Kolibri believes that the Caney formation will be productive throughout all of their 17,000 acres of leasehold. There should be more than 100 horizontal drilling locations.

Wolf believes that their stock is grossly undervalued, so I expect them to announce a stock buyback soon.

dan_s

OPEC’s Last Stand Keith Kohl | Dec 05, 2024 Today’s the day we’ve been waiting all year for. And as you read this now, the 57th Meeting of the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee and 38th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting is taking place, via videoconference. These JMMC meetings happen just t...

dan_s

Based on my forecast, Baytex should generate approximately $1.7Cdn billion of operating cash flow in 2025. -------------------------- December 3 press release: Baytex Energy Corp. (TSX: BTE) (NYSE: BTE) ("Baytex") is pleased to announce its 2025 budget. "Our 2025 budget demonstrates t...

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From OilPrice.com OPEC+ faces a dilemma: easing production cuts risks further price drops below $70 per barrel, but maintaining cuts supports non-OPEC+ supply growth. Saudi Arabia is pushing to delay the easing of cuts by 3–6 months. The group’s decision may hinge on how President Trump’s return in ...

dan_s

IEA has once again over-estimated oil supply growth. Based on EIA's monthly 914 report, US crude oil production is up less than 100,000 bpd year over year for the nine months ending 9-30-2024. US crude oil production is very close to the peak. Note from HFI Research: The long-term bullish oil the...

dan_s

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending November 29, 2024 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending November 29, 2024, which was 615 thousand barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 93.3% of their op...

dan_s

Don Simmons will be speaking at our Houston luncheon on Monday, December 9.

dan_s

I will update my forecast/valuation model early next week. On vacation in Mexico this week.

dan_s

Hemisphere is hosting a luncheon today in Dallas. Send an email to Sabrina if you would like to attend.

Send it to energyprospectus@gmail.com

dan_s

Notes below are from Simply Wall Street Let's uncover some gems from our specialized screener. Hemisphere Energy Simply Wall St Financial Health Rating: ★★★★★☆ Overview: Hemisphere Energy Corporation acquires, explores, develops, and produces petroleum and natural gas interests in Canada with a mark...

dan_s

Last week, we talked a little bit about the most important source of energy during cold winters — natural gas. We don’t stress things too much here in the U.S., especially with the huge amount of cheap, plentiful supply of natural gas that is being extracted from beneath the ground. However, it’s go...

dan_s

HFI is forecasting that EIA will report a small draw from crude oil storage in the US tomorrow.

dan_s

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Oil-Prices-Rise-as-OPEC-Prepares-to-Extend-Production-Cuts.html

Oil prices were moving higher early on Tuesday morning ahead of the latest OPEC+ meeting as members of the group aligned behind plans to extend production cuts into 2025.

dan_s

Team Trump should be very bullish for gassers and the midstream companies.

Will not have much impact on US oil production. Only higher oil prices will get more oil.

Enforcing sanctions against Iran and Venezuela will raise oil prices.

dan_s

It will be a three-step process:
1. Normal winter in the eastern US
2. US LNG exports at capacity in Q1 2025
3. Increasing demand for electricity from natural gas fired power plants.

Big upside for SEI regardless of the gas price.

All of the Sweet 16 produce a lot of natural gas and NGLs.

dan_s

InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) ("InPlay" or the "Company") is pleased to confirm that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.015 per common share payable on December 31, 2024, to shareholders of record at the close of business on December 16...

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