Energy Prospectus

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We have $8 billion more for Ukraine so more people can die in a senseless war, but not enough for U.S. citizens in need. RALEIGH, NC — With civilians working hard to rescue their neighbors along the path of devastation left behind by Hurricane Helene and FEMA revealing a lack of available money, th...

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Unless Israel wants Trump to win. I sure don't see Biden and the Democrats as strong supporters of Israel. --------------------------------- In yesterday’s Daily Energy Report we stated: “The idea that Israel will hit Iranian oil export facilities has been circulating in the last two days. We have r...

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Note from someone who knows a lot more about Iran than I do: "We decided to write about Iran since it has been in the news since yesterday after many news reports talked about the US and Israel hitting oil infrastructure in Iran. Oil prices have been increasing since yesterday after President B...

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OilPrice.com: Oil Rig Count Drops as Oil Prices See Strongest Weekly Gain Since 2022 By Julianne Geiger - Oct 04, 2024, 12:10 PM CDT The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday. The total ri...

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EIA: The largest source of electricity generation in Texas is natural gas, accounting for 45% of that region’s generation in 2023. We assume that existing and planned generating capacity is the same across the three scenarios, and our different assumptions about future electricity demand have the mo...

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Wolf Regener, CEO of Kolibri Global Energy will be joining me on an EPG webinar on October 10 at 10:30AM Central Time. KGEI closed at $3.25 on October 3. My current valuation is $4.65, which compares to First Call's price target of $6.73US. On September 18th Kolibri announced that it has finished dr...

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On September 26th HFI Research sent out a note that said: "I think we get another pullback to $67.50 area (WTI) and the market will want to see that hold. If it holds, then we will attempt the $71 to $73 region again. If that breaks, then we test $75 to $77. Today $71 and $73 are stronger suppo...

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Oil Spikes as War Approaches, What's Next? Keith Kohl | Oct 03, 2024 There are a few names that you may want to become acquainted with. Names like Ahvez, Marun, or Aghajari aren’t known to most people outside of the oil industry. To the average person, the names are meaningless. At least, they are u...

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Trading Economics on Oct 3 afternoon US natural gas futures surged over 2%, topping $2.95/MMBtu, a three-month high, following a federal report showing smaller-than-expected storage injections and forecasts for higher demand. > US utilities added only 55 bcf of gas to storage in the week ending Sept...

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Good timing.
We are going to publish a profile on Spartan Delta next week. It is being added to our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio.

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The Wall Street Gang is just beginning to realize that U.S. natural gas prices could be much higher in 2025. ---------------------------- Citi analysts upgraded EQT Corporation (NYSE:EQT) to Buy from Neutral on Thursday, citing a more favorable outlook for the U.S. gas market in 2025. According to t...

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Trading Economics: WTI crude oil futures surged 4% to $73 per barrel on Thursday, extending the week’s surge to a one-month high after US President Biden refrained from outright condemning the possibility that Israel may attack Iran’s oil facilities. < News Flash: Israel does not care what Joe Biden...

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Per EIA 10-3-2024 "In the United States, electricity consumption is growing fastest in Texas, where the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) manages 90% of the load on the state’s power grid. One of the main sources of growing demand for power is large-scale computing facilities such a...

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The World Population is growing by over 200,000 people a day The population of the world today is about 215,000 people larger than yesterday. The world population clock shows you in real time how fast it’s actually going. The development will put enormous pressure on Earth’s resources and we’ll need...

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My updated forecast/valuation model for FANG will be posted to the EPG website this afternoon. It has a lot more upside for us.

The Wall Street Gang loves this company!

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Since April 19th (23 weeks), the surplus to the 5-year average has decreased from 695 Bcf to 190 Bcf. The last two weekly declines have been 41 Bcf and 43 Bcf, with both weeks impacted by hurricane related shut-ins. During the last 7 weeks of the 2023 refill season natural gas in storage increased b...

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Working gas in storage was 3,547 Bcf as of Friday, September 27, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 55 Bcf from the previous week. < 5 Bcf lower than Celsius Energy's forecast. Stocks were 127 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 190 Bcf above the five-year ave...

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Diamondback Energy, Inc. (NASDAQ: FANG) (“Diamondback” or the “Company”) announced revised Q3 2024 production and capital guidance. This guidance has been updated to give effect to the Endeavor Energy Resources, L.P. (“Endeavor”) merger, which was completed on September 10, 2024. REVISED THIRD QUART...

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At the time of this post DVN was trading at $40.54. My current valuation is $61.00. TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 19 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for DVN. The average price target among the analysts is $53.76. The 19 price targets range from $43 to $68." The Grayson Mill ...

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Subject: 😡Biden-Harris Used FEMA Disaster Funding For Illegal Immigrants I had no idea under the corrupt Kamala/Biden/Mayorkas regime, FEMA’s Goals list “disaster relief” (emergency preparedness) in THIRD PLACE! Their number ONE Goal is “Equity”! Their number TWO Goal is “Climate Resilience”! They b...

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Trading volume on October 2 was 5X normal as 11.5 million shares changed hands.

CRGY finished the day up 11% on October 2nd.

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U.S. Embassy in Iraq stormed by Anti-Israel protesters Thousands of protesters attempted to breach the security barriers of the United States Embassy inside the Green Zone in Baghdad on Saturday night. According to an Al-Jazeera news report, Iraqi security forces clashed with protesters waving milit...

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Quote that caught my attention this morning: “While everything 100 miles back from Henry Hub could be at $3.00 to $4.00 per MMBtu regional cash prices, Henry Hub cash price could have periods of time comfortably above $5.00/MMBtu (this coming winter).” – JPM Commodities Research Recent gas prices in...

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The natural gas price you see quoted below is the front month NYMEX contract (NOV24) for natural gas to be delivered to Henry Hub, Louisiana in November. If you take a look at the NYMEX strip, the current prices for the next two months are $3.32 for DEC24 and $3.57 for JAN 25. Trading Economic: US n...

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Production increase are:
~44,000 Boepd for SM
~11,000 Boepd for NOG
86% to 87% oil.

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Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. (NYSE: NOG) ("NOG") closed its previously announced acquisition of Uinta Basin assets from XCL Resources, LLC ("XCL") on October 1, 2024. The closing included the assets previously owned by Altamont Energy, LLC ("Altamont"). These transactions...

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SM Energy Company (the "Company") (NYSE: SM) announced today that it has closed the previously announced Uinta Basin acquisition of an 80% undivided interest in the oil and gas assets of XCL Resources, LLC and affiliated entities, which includes the exercise of its option to acquire certai...

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Antero Resources has two new presentation slide decks on their website: https://www.anteroresources.com/news-events/presentations They focus on the U.S. natural gas market and the U.S. NGL market. I urge all of you to take the time to review them. They will give you information on why the U.S. natur...

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Today: InPlay Oil Corp. (TSX: IPO) (OTCQX: IPOOF) ("InPlay" or the "Company") is pleased to confirm that its Board of Directors has declared a monthly cash dividend of $0.015 per common share payable on October 31, 2024, to shareholders of record at the close of business on Octob...

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Another article on this topic: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Saudi-Arabia-Warns-Oil-Prices-Could-Drop-to-50.html In my opinion, Saudi Arabia is not and should not be worried about U.S. oil production, which has actually declined since December, 2023. They are just warning other members of O...

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This would be a BIG merger. Coterra's Q2 production: 669,000 Boepd < 69.2% natural gas, 16.0% crude oil, 14.8% NGLs Ovintiv's Q2 production: 593,800 Boepd < 48.8% natural gas, 35.7% crude oil & condensate, 15.5% NGLs Based on my forecasts, the combined free cash flow in 2024 will be over $2.5 bi...

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Crescent Energy Co. (NYSE:CRGY) will replace Perficient Inc. (NASD:PRFT) in the S&P SmallCap 600 effective prior to the opening of trading on Friday, October 4. EQT Group is acquiring Perficient in a deal expected to close soon pending final conditions. CRGY is up more than 10% this morning. Mov...

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Last week the Financial Times published an article based on rumors and misinformation, which caused a 3% drop in the price of oil. FT implied that Saudi Arabia would significantly increase production to gain market share. Below is a different, and I believe more accurate point of view: From OilPric...

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Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending September 27, 2024 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.7 million barrels per day during the week ending September 27, 2024, which was 662 thousand barrels per day less than the previous week’s average. < This is primary reason that crude oi...

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Trading Economics: Crude Oil: WTI crude oil futures surged 3% to above $70 per barrel on Tuesday, after Iran launched a barrage of missiles at Israel, heightening fears of a broader regional conflict in the Middle East. > Israel's Defense Forces intercepted a large number of missiles and stated that...

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Israel plans to launch “powerful airstrikes throughout the Middle East” beginning Tuesday night in retaliation for an Iranian missile barrage launched on the Jewish state Tuesday, according to reports. The warning comes after nearly 200 ballistic missiles were fired Israel, with shrapnel and warhead...

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Nouveau Monde Graphite (TSX-V: NOU, NYSE: NMG) is hosting a luncheon Wednesday, October 2nd in Dallas. EPG members are invited to attend. 12:00 PM Group Lunch | Capital Grille, 500 Crescent Court, Dallas, TX 75201 NMG is developing a turnkey natural graphite operation in Quebec to supply the Western...

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EIA fresh 914 report shows that actual U.S. oil production DECLINED from June to July. EIA's weekly ESTIMATES in July were too high. U.S. oil production is flat to slightly down because the gas-to-oil ratio in the Permian Basin is growing. Limited pipeline access for natural gas in West Texas makes ...

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My current valuation of VRN is $11.00US, which is just a few cents below $15.00Cdn. My valuation is just 4X annualized operating cash flow per share, which is conservative for a company of this size and quality. TipRanks: > RBC Capital analyst Michael Harvey maintained a Buy rating on Veren (VRN) on...

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APA Corporation (Nasdaq: APA) announced today that its subsidiary has reached a positive final investment decision (FID) for the first oil development in Block 58, located offshore Suriname. The project has been named GranMorgu, which is derived from a local language and means both “new dawn” and “g...

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Here is the direct link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5u4HZVOdVzY

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Leverage does work both ways. Because Vital has so much of their oil hedged, the commodity price risk is low on this one. Rising natural gas prices should help cash flows, but the pipeline capacity issue will remain a problem for the Permian Basin through 2025. Oil hedges: > 2H 2024 ~91% hedged at $...

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/natural-gas-climbs-5th-week-111400816.html

Antero Resources (AR) will be added to the Sweet 16 soon and Coterra (CTRA) was recently moved from the High Yield Income Portfolio to the Sweet 16. You can find updated profiles for each company on the EPG website.

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I plan to record a new podcast this after or tomorrow.

I've been very busy updating all of the forecast/valuation models and the newsletter over the weekend.

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Trading Economics: US natural gas futures NOV24 surged nearly 5% to close at $2.90/MMBtu on Friday, September 27 > The closing price was the highest in three months, as Hurricane Helene hit the Southeast, prompting Gulf of Mexico producers to cut output and leaving millions without power across Flor...

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Laredo Petroleum (LPI) changed its name to Vital Energy 1-1-2023. About a year earlier, Laredo admitted during a quarterly conference call that they were drilling horizontal development wells too close together; admitting that their development drilling inventory ("Running Room") was overs...

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Many investors might be surprised to learn that the outlook for global coal consumption is bright. Coal consumption has in fact increased for decades, and growth shows no signs of slowing down. Watten Buffet is bullish on oil & gas. Last year Berkshire Hathaway invested $39.9 billion in oil and ...

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I sure would hate to have sons young enough to be drafted.
Who in their right mind would want to join the military if Kamala Harris is the Commander-in-Chief.

Just picture in your mind Kamala having a staff meeting with a bunch of generals.

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and we have citizens that think Kamala Harris would be a good Commander in Chief. ------------------------------ September 27, 2024: The US Navy has thwarted an attempted attack by Houthi rebels on three warships navigating the Red Sea, reports confirm. On Friday, Houthi insurgents announced their &...

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Note that I got from HFI Research before the markets opened on September 27: "WTI is doing precisely what I thought would take place. It's back to where it last broke down, and if my thinking is right, then the move below $67.50 was a false breakdown , which should be validated here. I think th...

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