Energy Prospectus

dan_s

This is from one of our very well-connected EPG members . DAY 50. OPERATION EPIC FURY. The Rattlesnake's Last Rattle Iran fires on ships. The Boxer arrives. The diplomatic door closes. April 18, 2026 Clayton Wood From Confusion to Clarity A Note Before You Read This essay was substantially complete...

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Listen to the 6 minute audio version of this report from Cairo. https://www.chicagotribune.com/2026/04/18/iran-closes-strait-of-hormuz/ This sounds like there is zero chance of a negotiated peace agreement this month and just a tiny chance of cease fire extension after Wednesday. There is no chance ...

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Latest from CNN: Iran renews restrictions on Strait of Hormuz as peace talks approach a critical juncture Where things stand Saturday Strait closure: Iran says it is once again shutting down the Strait of Hormuz, blaming the US for “breaches of trust” during the ongoing ceasefire. The move may threa...

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HFI Research: We are forecasting a US crude storage draw of 11.28 million bbls for the week ending April 17. US SPR release will offset ~5 million bbls. US commercial crude storage will decline by 6.28 million bbls. I expect U.S. exports of crude oil to steadily increase with much higher oil prices...

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From the Wall Street Journal online: Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, or SNSC, is discussing new U.S. proposals for a peace deal, the country’s state television said Saturday. “Iran is currently considering the proposal but has not yet responded,” the statement by the council said, accordin...

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Trump told reporters Saturday that the United States remained engaged in “very good conversations” with Iran and acknowledged that Tehran “wanted to close up the strait again.” “They can’t blackmail us,” Trump said of Iran, adding that he would have more information on the talks with Tehran “by end ...

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BBC: Ships report attacks after Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, as Trump says US 'won't be blackmailed' Summary Iran's military says it will close the Strait of Hormuz in response to the US maintaining its blockade, Iranian state media reports A tanker in the area has reported coming under fire by two...

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Based on this article ( https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/iran-reimposes-strict-control-over-strait-of-hormuz-citing-continued-us-naval-blockade/ar-AA21b0Vp ) the chances of a peace agreement between the U.S. and Iran in April is now close to zero. Unless Trump calls off the blockade of the Strai...

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BBC: "Tanker reports being 'fired upon' by Iran gunboats as Tehran closes Strait of Hormuz again." Iran’s military announced it has closed the Strait of Hormuz just a day after the country declared the waterway open, decrying the U.S. blockade and leaving the status of the vital waterway u...

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On Friday, April 17th at 1PM central time I was interviewed by Jim Puplava on his Financial Sense show. Here is a link to the replay: https://www.financialsense.com/podcast/21622/strait-uncertainty-how-middle-east-turmoil-reshaping-global-energy Since what's happening in the Middle East and its impa...

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America’s LNG Takeover Begins Keith Kohl on April 17th It took just about 10 years for the U.S. to dominate the world’s LNG trade. I know the veteran members of our investment community here know about the significance of the Asia Vision. Back on February 24, 2016, the Asia Vision — a 285 m LNG tank...

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The War is not over, and no one really knows if we are close to a "Peace Agreement" that may not be worth the paper it is written on unless whoever the leader of Iran is has the power to enforce what needs to be a total surrender to the U.S. Team Trump wants, no uranium enrichment, no bal...

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Time to Plan for Months of Oil, Gas Shortage By Irina Slav - Apr 13, 2026, 5:00 PM CDT Global oil supply has been cut by up to 11 million bpd due to the Middle East war, with disruptions likely to persist as ceasefire prospects fade. Even in a best-case scenario, restoring production will take month...

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From BBC On the face of it, Iran’s reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is welcome news, but the reality could be more complicated. The major shipping companies have continually stressed that the safety of their crews and vessels is their top priority. It is likely they will want to see a sustained ces...

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WTI dipped below $81/bbl and at 12:30 ET it is back over $83/bbl April 17 (Reuters) - Shipping companies have cautiously welcomed Iran's announcement that the Strait of Hormuz is open but said they would require clarifications before vessels move through the entry point to the Gulf. Foreign Ministe...

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Is anyone really in control of Iran? "Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi announced that the passage of all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is ‘completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire’, only for the IRGC to reiterate that any tankers would still need to coor...

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Oil traders are hanging on U.S.–Iran talks as hopes for reopening the Strait of Hormuz push prices lower—but failure could trigger shortages and a new price spike. Read more: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/Oil-Slides-but-the-Real-Test-Comes-This-Weekend.html

dan_s

At the time of this post the front month contract for WTI was trading at $83.02/bbl, down 12.3% since Iran announce the Strait of Hormuz was open. OilPrice.com > What's next for oil prices? Story by Tsvetana Paraskova Oil prices have held steady below $100 per barrel since the U.S. on Monday initia...

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BBC Update: Summary Iran's foreign minister says the Strait of Hormuz is "completely open" to commercial ships for the remainder of the ceasefire "THANK YOU!" Donald Trump posts on Truth Social - moments later, he says the US naval blockade of Iranian ports will remain in place u...

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AI Generated oil price forecasts are updated several times a day here: https://longforecast.com/oil-price-today-forecast-2017-2018-2019-2020-2021-brent-wti Wild Price Swings will continue until an enforceable peace agreement with Iran is reached. "Blockade on Iran will continue, Trump says, aft...

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"I believe that crude oil prices will eventually head substantially lower. However, the current conflict could cause periodic price spikes. The Iranian theocracy’s strategy appears to be to inflict maximum economic damage to the U.S. administration. While they may have a few short-term victori...

dan_s

Oil prices just dropped sharply and stock futures surged after the Iranian foreign minister said the Strait of Hormuz will be “completely open” for commercial transit during the remainder of the ceasefire. Brent crude, the global benchmark, fell 9%, to $90 per barrel. WTI, the US benchmark, sank 9.5...

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Per EIA on April 16: Working natural gas in storage was 1,970 Bcf as of Friday, April 10, 2026, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 59 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 126 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 108 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,862 Bcf. At...

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Price volatility at the front of NYMEX strip for WTI will increase as expiration date of the front month contract (MAY26) draws near. The Paper Traders that are long the contract must close their positions or take physical delivery at Cushing, OK. Traders will react to each Trump post and headline a...

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Oilprice.com: What’s Next for Oil Prices? By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 16, 2026, 7:00 PM CDT > Oil prices are holding below $100 amid ceasefire hopes, but markets remain highly volatile and driven by geopolitical headlines. > Physical supply is still severely constrained, with flows through the Strai...

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The "noise" level is very high, making it difficult to predict where the oil price goes next. ----------------- Trading Economics: WTI oil WTI crude futures slipped toward $93.50 per barrel on Thursday after the markets closed, trimming gains from the previous session after US President Do...

dan_s

Note from HFI Research this afternoon. In the "Real World" the global oil market is getting real tight. ---------------- My advice to you is simple: follow the signal. As I’ve said recently, the math is what it is. Generalists can believe whatever headline or narrative that’s being touted,...

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Oil is selling at much higher prices in the "real world". This has never happened before, so I have no idea if any of our model portfolio companies are getting the higher spot prices for their crude oil. -------------- The True Cost of Oil Just Hit $286 Per Barrel Keith Kohl The true cost ...

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NYMEX Strip for WTI oil is now over $81/bbl through September. IMO there is now zero chance of WTI back below $60/bbl this year.

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Update from Josef Schachter received April 16, with my comments in blue. The US is giving off signals that a deal with Iran is progressing and that they may extend the ceasefire if negotiations this weekend in Pakistan show progress. The ceasefire ends next Tuesday but diplomatic efforts may require...

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Trading Economics WTI oil The MAY26 futures contract for WTI crude oil futures rose above $94/bbl per barrel on Thursday as traders balanced signs that the US and Iran may extend a ceasefire with the ongoing double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which continues to disrupt flows. < Here is the &qu...

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The price of oil is more complicated than any one figure and depends on where you look. The oil trade can be broadly divided into two distinct markets: physical sales and contracts for future oil deliveries, known as futures. Since the start of the war and Iran’s effective blockade of the Strait of ...

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This is one of my Top Picks for copper: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=UNolVYSRvgE

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At the time of this post HME.V was trading at $2.735Cdn per share. Hemisphere's 2025 production was 3,645 Boepd despite several unplanned shut-ins. The company's 2026 production guidance is 3,900 Boepd, primarily due to the two successful polymer floods within their Atlee Buffalo core area. They are...

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Nothing is wrong with InPlay. Several small-caps sold off based on yesterday's big drop in the oil price, as the Paper Traders are reacting to every headline and Trump post.

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Vancouver, British Columbia--(Newsfile Corp. - April 15, 2026) - Hemisphere Energy Corporation (TSXV: HME) (OTCQX: HMENF) ("Hemisphere" or the "Company") is pleased announce that its Board of Directors has approved the declaration of a special dividend to shareholders, as well as...

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Since it takes ~3 months for an oil tanker to travel from the Persian Gulf to the U.S., the storage volumes reported below have not been impacted by the War in Iran. The U.S. no longer imports much oil from the Persian Gulf. It is expected that the U.S. will be exporting more light oil to Europe an...

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EIA's oil price forecast below is what I am using in my forecast/valuation models. "The Brent crude oil spot price averaged $103 per barrel (b) in March, and we expect it to peak in the second quarter of 2026 (2Q26) at $115/b before easing as production shut-ins slowly abate. We maintain a risk...

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Note below from HFI Research received Apri15 with my comments in blue . If you had traveled back in time and told me the following: Iran, the US, and Israel are at war. The Strait of Hormuz is “effectively” closed with ~11 million b/d of crude oil production shut-in. Global SPR release of 400 millio...

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From Bloomberg: OPEC+ monthly crude oil production dropped sharply in March to a five-year low as the Iran war closed the Strait of Hormuz and forced several members with storage constraints and export disruptions to cut output. Eighteen of the 22 OPEC+ members participating in the group’s productio...

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No news specific to REPX to justify the selloff. MAY26 WTI contract falling $7/bbl caused a lot of stocks to selloff. Sometimes it just takes one large sell order to trigger a selloff of small-caps. Riley only has ~21.5 million shares outstanding. TipRanks Premium still rates REPX a Strong Buy with ...

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From CNN: Potential talks: Vice President JD Vance is expected to lead a potential second round of negotiations with Iranian officials should a meeting happen before the ceasefire expires next week, sources told CNN. US President Donald Trump had suggested earlier that talks could resume in the nex...

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From the BBC: A "historic" meeting between Israel and Lebanon in the US concluded with both parties agreeing to "direct" negotiations Israel's ambassador to the US said the talks showed the three nations "are on the same side of the equation", while the Lebanese ambassa...

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A Market in Crisis Mode - Not a Cycle The central takeaway from the April OMR by the International Energy Agency is unequivocal: the global oil market has exited the realm of normal cyclical behavior and entered a phase of systemic crisis. Traditional supply-demand rebalancing mechanisms—price elas...

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Pine Cliff successfully drilled one gross (1.0 net) Glauconite well in the Central Alberta Caroline area in December 2025 that was completed and brought on production in the second half of February 2026. Field production estimates over the last 30 days have averaged 1,167 Boe/d1 (56% liquids) includ...

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Rubellite Energy is one of the companies in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio that will get a significant revenue boost from rising oil prices. Rubellite produces heavy oil which is needed to produce diesel and jet fuel. You may have noticed that diesel prices at the pump are much higher than gasoline ...

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From OilPrice.com: Paper Oil Blinks While Physical Supply Tightens By Tsvetana Paraskova - Apr 14, 2026, 12:00 PM CDT > Oil market volatility is easing as traders adjust to geopolitical headlines, though prices still spike on major developments like failed U.S.–Iran talks and the Hormuz blockade. > ...

dan_s

Update on the Strait of Hormuz: WASHINGTON, April 14 (Reuters) - No ships have made ⁠it ⁠past a U.S. naval ⁠blockade of Iran's ports and coastal areas, and six merchant ships have followed orders to turn back, the U.S. military said on Tuesday, providing ‌the first details on a ‌day-old effort orde...

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US natural gas futures fell to around $2.60 per MMBtu, their lowest level since late October 2024, as ample supply and subdued demand in US continued to weigh on prices. > The EIA reported a 50 Bcf injection into storage for the week ended April 3, exceeding market expectations of a 46 Bcf build and...

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Trading Economics WTI Oil WTI crude oil futures (MAY26) dropped below $93 per barrel on Tuesday, amid signs the US and Iran may resume talks, following Washington’s move to impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz. > Discussions are underway to hold another round of negotiations before a two-week c...

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