Energy Prospectus

cmm3rd

Here is what is really amazing: "Commercial inventories depleted more than twice as fast as the prior ten-year seasonal average - by the most since 2020 and before that 2017, previous periods that were also characterised by OPEC⁺ restraint. In consequence, stocks were 20 million barrels (-4% or...

cmm3rd

U.S. oil inventories fall as OPEC⁺ extends output curbs U.S. petroleum inventories have depleted significantly since the middle of the year in response to slower production growth from the U.S. shale fields and the extension of ouput cuts by Saudi Arabia and its OPEC⁺ partners. By deferring producti...

cmm3rd

"Hemisphere Energy is debt-free, enhancing its financial stability despite short-term assets not covering long-term liabilities fully." Can anyone elaborate on the latter part of this statement? What are its long term liabilities that are not covered by short term assets? What assets are c...

cmm3rd

From John Kemp: U.S. gas surplus likely to be eliminated before winter ends U.S. gas production is turning down in response to lower prices and less drilling, eroding excess inventories inherited from last year’s very mild winter and lifting prices from their record lows earlier this year. Dry gas p...

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Venezuela gas complex blast hits heavy crude dilution; power production: report Production of light crude, upgraded heavy oil and natural gas in Venezuela's eastern fields will be severely compromised until at least February after an explosion and resulting fire destroyed a network of gas pipelines ...

cmm3rd

Anyone have an explanation for today's 12% haircut? Is it that there are many other companies who don't have the leverage Ring has and thus can do shareholder returns in the form of buybacks and dividends that Ring now cannot do? I could understand why investors want the returns and, other things be...

cmm3rd

Based on SEC filings on 9/18 and 10/8, it appeared that as of 10/8, Warburg’s holdings were down to 35.5 million shares. A 13G filed on 10/24 reports that BlackRock owns 10.9 million shares (5.5%) with a “date of event” being reported as 9/30/24. PR issued 10/28 said Ring will report Q3 after close ...

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New Permian oil pipelines unlikely to be built, say top operators By Arathy Somasekhar October 25, 20244:07 AM CDTUpdated 10 hours ago US shale producers continue to restrain production growth Companies such as Enbridge expand capacity on existing lines Deepwater oil export projects struggle to attr...

cmm3rd

PPS has taken a beating, along with IPOOF. Anyone have any thoughts about why these small Cdn producers' PPS has been so pressured?

cmm3rd

Interesting post on IV Energy Investing mb: Ukraine war winding down...BRICS/Putin emerge stronger than ever. Rather than relitigate the details of the war, perhaps it's time to examine likely next developments as they relate to energy. Really nothing new but the end of this war is a milestone and a...

cmm3rd

If JPMorgan is right (hopefully not), and Brent goes into the low 60s in 2H 2025 (meaning WTI is in the 50’s) those investors may be disappointed. Agree, it sure seems that there’s a significant disconnect between inventory levels/production and demand vs price of crude. Will be interesting to see w...

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JP Morgan put out a note on 10/15 re crude inventories and price (Brent). Interesting that global inventories are lowest since 2017, but price forecast is for a decline in H2 2025. Apparently they are in the camp that 2025 will see increasing production outweigh increase in demand. Key Takeaways: Si...

cmm3rd

There is considerable skepticism that the current administration will suddenly enforce its expanded sanctions, at least to any significant degree, or in any immediate way (such as blocking shipping of Iranian oil), and thereby risk a spike in oil prices, especially just before the election. https://...

cmm3rd

Looked back at the 7/5/22 Stronghold acquisition PR. https://www.ringenergy.com/news-presentations-events/press-releases/detail/180/ring-energy-announces-agreement-to-acquire-strongholds. Excerpt: "The equity component of the consideration will be approximately 21.3 million shares of Ring’s com...

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Warburg Pincus filed a Form 144 after today's close reporting a sale of 4.4 million REI shares today (market value $7.6 million). https://www.ringenergy.com/investors/sec-filings/all-sec-filings?form_type=&year=##document-1440-0000950170-24-113525-2 The same filing documents Warburg's having sol...

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Ovintiv 3% higher after Street Insider report on takeover rumor The Fly Ovintiv 3% higher after Street Insider report on takeover rumor TheFly TheFlyOct 01, 2024, 01:45 PM Shares of Ovintiv (OVV) are up $1.08, or 3%, to $39.39 after Street Insider said the company is rumored to have been approached ...

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MEG Energy Announces Completion of Debt Reduction Strategy and Initiation of Return of 100% of Free Cash Flow to MEG Shareholders Canada NewsWire CALGARY, AB, Oct. 1, 2024 CALGARY, AB, Oct. 1, 2024 /CNW/ - MEG Energy Corp. ("MEG" or the "Corporation" (TSX: MEG)) is pleased to ann...

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Excerpts of Cowen report pasted below. Charts and graphs (useful) did not copy. Analysts used WTI 2024E US $75, 2025E $72.50; and HH 2024E US $2.60, 2025E $3.60. VRN - Underperformance unjustified, strong entry point -TD Cowen Veren's recent underperformance has resulted in an improved entry point. ...

cmm3rd

Thank you, Harry. Very helpful. They have a problem similar to Ring, in my opinion, which is that there are many producers who, because they have conservative leverage, are (1) inherently less exposed to lower commodity prices (i.e., less risky), and (2) able to offer meaningful shareholder returns ...

cmm3rd

From Dan Tsubuchi weekly newsletter (unable to paste graphs): Oil: Cdn heavy oil differentials narrows -$0.05 WoW to close at $13.20 on September 27 WCS less WTI differentials were basically flat this week at down -$0.05 WoW to close at $13.20 on Sept 27. As noted in the following item, we have been...

cmm3rd

Could $1.6 billion debt have something to do with the market’s relatively low valuation? How does their leverage compare with that of similarly sized companies? Their presentation emphasizes that they intend to pay it down (which implies they know it’s concerning to the market), but how long will th...

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Hemisphere Energy Declares Special Dividend and Provides Operations Update September 24, 2024 Vancouver, British Columbia, September 24, 2024 – Hemisphere Energy Corporation ("Hemisphere" or the "Company") is pleased to announce that its board of directors has approved the declar...

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Comstock shorts should factor in potential of Jones go-private bid, says KeyBanc TheFly TheFlySep 20, 2024, 09:45 AM KeyBanc analyst Tim Rezvan points out similarities between Continental Resources, which was taken private in 2022 by majority shareholder Harold Hamm, and Comstock Resources, which is...

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INDIA consumed 18.3 million tonnes of petroleum in August 2024 down slightly from 18.9 million tonnes in the same month a year earlier. Total consumption in the first eight months was 160 million tonnes up from 154 million tonnes in the same period in 2023. But consumption growth has been decelerati...

cmm3rd

Thank you, Harry, for the clarification. After rereading the Q2 report and the presentation, I now understand that "elected commitment" refers to what the bank(s) had committed to lend (and here, what the bank has committed to increase upon closing of the Point acquisition), not what the c...

cmm3rd

Questions regarding Vital's debt. Their 8/7/24 presentation (https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/24984e60-381c-4c54-a1c6-d4fa5c627480), slide 9, shows a "borrowing base" of $1.5 billion (pro forma the Point acquisition). It also shows an "elected commitment" of $1.5 bn....

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Per 9/5/24 Form 4 filing, Carlos Slim's company bought another 2.4 million shares on 9/3 and 9/4 in the open market, upping its stake to 42.5 mm shares. https://d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net/CIK-0001724965/42c76483-1ac3-4229-86fa-c67e1bebaf44.pdf Per 13D filed 9/5, he now owns 42.8 million shares, o...

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Texas Matterhorn natgas pipe moving some gas, say Permian Resources executives By Reuters Sept 5 (Reuters) - The Matterhorn natural gas pipeline in Texas was moving small amounts of gas from the Permian basin in West Texas toward the Gulf Coast, executives at U.S. energy company Permian Resources (P...

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JP Morgan bearish on oil prices in 2025, predicts OPEC+ will maintain current production levels for "at least another year" https://boereport.com/2024/09/05/jpmorgan-sees-opec-holding-output-steady-for-another-year/ JPMorgan sees OPEC+ holding output steady for another year September 5, 20...

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"The Company’s updated shareholder return policy replaces its previous formulaic variable return policy. Permian Resources expects its first quarterly base dividend of $0.15 per share under its new capital return policy to commence with its third quarter 2024 dividend." Q2 dividends were $...

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Permian Resources Announces Significant Increase to its Base Dividend 09.03.2024 MIDLAND, Texas – Permian Resources Corporation (“Permian Resources” or the “Company”) (NYSE:PR) today announced an update to its return of capital strategy, which increases its quarterly base dividend from $0.06 per sha...

cmm3rd

From Kemp 9/3: U.S. GASOLINE consumption declined significantly in June compared with the same month a year earlier. The volume of gasoline supplied to the domestic market averaged 9.1 million barrels per day (b/d) down from 9.4 million b/d in June 2023. .... SEA SURFACE temperatures in the central-...

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Maybe OPEC+ will rethink production cut reversal decision? Oil extends losses on prospect of higher OPEC+ supply Published Sun, Sep 1 20249:09 PM EDT Reuters Oil prices extended losses on Monday with investors weighing higher OPEC+ production from October against a sharp drop in output from Libya am...

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Analyzing OPEC+ reversal of production cuts in light of reduced Chinese demand so far in 2024 OPEC+ has oil price and demand problems. It should solve demand By Clyde Russell September 1, 202411:01 PM CDT Commentary By Clyde Russell LAUNCESTON, Australia, Sept 2 (Reuters) - OPEC+ has two problems an...

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John Kemp 9/2: CHINA’s manufacturers reported a worsening slowdown in business activity last month. The official purchasing managers index slipped to 49.1 (6th percentile for all months since 2011) in August from 49.4 (14th percentile) in July. The index has fallen in five of the last six months fro...

cmm3rd

According to EIA's August 2024 STEO, US crude production in 2023 was 12.9 mmbpd, will in 2024 be 13.2 mmbpd, and in 2025 will be 13.7 mmbpd (which seems aggressive). https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/ Below is IEA medium term US supply forecast (from their Oil 2024 report, pp. 71-72), https:/...

cmm3rd

Each of the four, June weekly reports were production of 13.2 mm bpd, so it would appear that the 8/30 914 EIA report of June production at 13.214 is pretty consistent with their earlier, June weekly reports. https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?f=W&n=PET&s=WCRFPUS2 I.e., for t...

cmm3rd

EIA issued its monthly 914 report today, showing a 25k bpd (0.2%) increase in production in June (13,214,000) vs May (13,189,000). https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/.

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Exxon Joins OPEC in Warning of Looming Oil Supply Crisis By Irina Slav - Aug 28, 2024, 7:00 PM CDT Exxon predicts a future oil shortage if investment in new production doesn't increase, despite forecasts of declining demand due to electric vehicles. The company argues a rapid decline in production, ...

cmm3rd

Hopefully OPEC+ will decide to surprise the traders with another extension of production cuts.

cmm3rd

Oil bears focus on lacklustre demand and planned output boost: Kemp - Reuters News 27 Aug 2024 13:45:12 LONDON, August 27 (Reuters) - Investors have remained resolutely bearish about the outlook for petroleum prices despite increasing confidence the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates to st...

cmm3rd

"I prefer solvency (=equity/balance sheet total)." For those of us having no accounting or business background, could you please explain what, for purposes of "solvency," you mean by "equity" and "balance sheet total"? By "equity" do you mean "m...

cmm3rd

By contrast, EIA's forecast in its August 6, 2024 STEO monthly report says that - global oil inventories decreased by 0.4 million bpd in 1H 2024 and will decrease by 0.8 million bpd in 2H 2024, - global liquids consumption will increase in 2024 by 1.1 million bpd (no change from prior month forecast...

cmm3rd

Thanks, Dan and Harry, for addressing the debt and Point deal impact subjects. Greatly appreciated. My take: institutions/investors vary considerably in how much weight they give to balance sheet and liquidity, in substantial part because of divergence of opinion regarding (and uncertainty about) co...

cmm3rd

WCS discount to WTI moved lower again on Thursday, then held steady on Friday. Now $12.25. Like the trend, though obviously we'd also like to see WTI get back to and hold $80. Heavy oil discount holds steady August 16, 20243:11 PM Reuters The discount on Western Canada Select (WCS) heavy crude versu...

cmm3rd

Do some investors (especially institutional investors) consider debt level (and maturities) and liquidity in relation to other parameters when valuing O&G producers? VTLE's latest presentation (8/7/24): https://investor.vitalenergy.com/static-files/24984e60-381c-4c54-a1c6-d4fa5c627480 As of 6/30...

cmm3rd

WCS heavy select closed today up 5%, https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/257

CalRock reported it closed at $12.60 below WTI for September delivery at Hardisty. https://www.xm.com/research/markets/allNews/reuters/heavy-oil-discount-narrows-53904953

Has to be good for HMENF.

cmm3rd

Two insiders (director and ex CEO of Silverbow Duginski and Chief Accounting Officer Falk) reported purchases of shares last week (8/8 and 8/9). Well timed. https://irpages2.eqs.com/websites/crescent/English/2010/us-sec-filing.html?secFilingId=09b1bcad-6be6-4b56-aafc-0dd7df01ab75&format=html&...

cmm3rd

https://tourmaline.cdn.prismic.io/tourmaline/Zrnp8UaF0TcGI25x_TourmalineAcquisitionofCrewEnergyInc.-August122024-.pdf

Significant premium

cmm3rd

According to this source, the spread has narrowed a bit further since Don Simmons' report (Wednesday close - $13.35) to Dan this past week. Hardisty is the site Don Simmons cited, so apparently it's the one HMENF uses, but regardless, the point is the narrowing general trend. (Don't be misled by the...

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