Energy Prospectus

dan_s

TALO is on my Watch List. I have not had much time to look at it, but I will today. HOUSTON, Sept. 5, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Talos Energy Inc. ("Talos") (NYSE: TALO) today announced that its Ewing Bank 953 well ("EW 953 well") successfully discovered commercial quantities of oil an...

dan_s

Maybe this makes more sense: > Crescent Energy (CRGY) had very little analysts' coverage prior to the merger with SilverBow Resources, which was also not getting the coverage it deserved. As one of the top producers in South Texas (over 250,000 Boepd), CRGY will get more coverage. On September 5th W...

dan_s

Go see the Reagan movie for a reminder of what happen in America if we elect a strong leader. From one of our members: "It was so good to be reminded of what one cowboy/crusader did for America by standing true to God, his country and himself. It can be done again, but it's so much easier not t...

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Notes below are from HFI Research Unemployment was released this morning. I was interested in it purely because the numbers have been so seemingly manipulated. Interestingly, Brian Wesbury opined sort of tongue and cheek with the way futures were acting this morning, it seems like someone got the n...

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Comments from HFI Research on Sept 6 I've been through some turbulent times in my years of covering the oil markets, but the recent bout of bearishness is up there in terms of magnitude. We've had some interesting events unfold this week, and despite all of these mildly positive developments, WTI ca...

dan_s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_ydV7PVPzc

Harris has no plan.

dan_s

Today I spend several hours looking at BSM. I have posted my updated forecast/valuation model and updated profile to the EPG website. Black Stone Minerals, LP (BSM) is one of the four minerals companies in our High Yield Income Portfolio. The other three are KRP, STR and VNOM. They are all rock soli...

dan_s

Update on Secret Service investigation: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-5YQPVLSmY

2nd half is how grossly overpriced the Secret Service budget is.

dan_s

Today Wells Fargo and KeyBanc have adjusted their price targets for CRGY to $21.00 and $16.00. < TipRanks' consensus price target is $17.25 I have updated my forecast model for the relatively small bolt-on acquisition announced yesterday. My valuation increases by $0.25 to $24.50/share. My valuation...

dan_s

Details here: https://crescentenergyco.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/CRGY-Complementary-Central-Eagle-Ford-Bolt-On-9.4.24.pdf

Accretive: Adding 4,000 Boepd of production in Q4 2024 (85% oil)

dan_s

Big 3 (crude oil, gasoline, distillates) inventories are ALL BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending August 30, 2024 U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.9 million barrels per day during the week ending August 30, 2024, which was 36 thousand bar...

dan_s

This is bullish. My WAG was a build of 29 Bcf for the week ending August 30. Working gas in storage was 3,347 Bcf as of Friday, August 30, 2024, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 13 Bcf from the previous week. < The 5-year average build for the last week of August is 63 B...

dan_s

Yesterday Crescent Energy Company (NYSE: CRGY) announced the signing of a definitive agreement to acquire assets from a private Eagle Ford operator for total cash consideration of $168 million, subject to customary purchase price adjustments. > The acquisition is directly offset Crescent’s existing ...

dan_s

I just got a call from one of our members based in New York. He told me that OPEC+ has confirmed a two month delay in their 180,000 bpd increase in export quotas that was set to begin in October. LONDON (Reuters) -Oil firmed on Thursday, edging up from multi-month lows, due to a possible delay to o...

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A Cautionary Energy Tale That Cannot Be Ignored Keith Kohl | Sep 05, 2024 Good intentions should never excuse poor energy policy. And nowhere else has this more true than within Europe, where aggressive energy policies have become national disasters . If you’re looking for a clearcut example of wha...

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Today I updated the profile and forecast model for Surge Energy (SGY and ZPTAF). Surge was in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio until recently when I decided to move it to our High Yield Income Portfolio. After Surge's production grew by 20.5% in 2022 and another 14.9% in 2023, the Company decided to f...

dan_s

I have updated the profile and forecast/valuation model for ROK Resources (ROK.V) and they have been posted to the EPG website. You can download them directly from the EPG home page or you can find them under the Small-Caps tab. ROK Resources is a Canadian Junior upstream company in our Small-Cap Gr...

dan_s

MY TAKE: 1. OPEC+'s increase of 180,000 bpd is a rounding error in a world that will soon be consuming 105,000,000 bpd. 2. I do believe that there are "Forces" that can control oil prices for short periods of time, but the global oil market is tight, and we have Iranian proxies blowing up ...

dan_s

We will be sending out Harry's updates to all paid subscribers via email. You will be getting at least two updates per month. Harry's reports will not be housed on the EPG website for direct access, but if you misplace one, Sabrina can send it to you. You will be able to ask Harry (the "Petrole...

dan_s

I will be stunned if Saudi Arabia lets the oil price dip to $60/bbl. Keep in mind that OPEC+ controls all of the spare oil supply capacity.

dan_s

Seating is limited to 40, so you must register for this luncheon if you wish to attend. Solaris Resources (SLSR) is hosting the luncheon, which will be held at The Ballroom at Tanglewood, 5430 Westheimer Road, Houston Notes below are from Brisco Capital, which brought us Hemisphere Energy (HMENF) a...

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Source: EIA "North America’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity is on track to more than double between 2024 and 2028, from 11.4 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2023 to 24.4 Bcf/d in 2028, if projects currently under construction begin operations as planned. During this time, we ...

dan_s

HFI Research: "For the week ending August 30, we have a crude draw of 6.08 million bbls. Looking at our US commercial crude storage projection, we will see crude storage match the 5-year low this week." IN MY OPINION, the oil traders are over-reacting to OPEC+ decision to increase quotas b...

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To subscribe to this additional service, go here: https://energyprospectus.com/product/1-year-subscription-for-harry-van-neck-reports/

Harry's weekly reports have been extremely helpful to me.

dan_s

Now that most educated people realize that wind and solar aren't going to meet "Future World's" energy demand, natural gas & nuclear are the only two viable solutions. We are one normal winter away from much higher natural gas prices. Saudi Arabia will defend the oil price, and they wa...

dan_s

Note from Wells Fargo Equity Research received today: OKE is buying GIP's controlling stake in ENLC and 100% of Medallion Midstream. We view the transaction as a positive for both OKE & ENLC. We're raising our PT for OKE to $100/ share and remain Overweight. We're downgrading ENLC to EW on the ...

dan_s

Thirteen days ago now, the oil tanker MV Sounion was attacked by the Houthis. A French Aspides ship came to the rescue whilst destroying an approaching surface drone. They put out the initial fires and evacuated the crew to Djibouti. With the ship now abandoned at anchor, the Houthis went back two d...

dan_s

Right now there are two US nuclear-powered aircraft carriers – the Lincoln and the Roosevelt – on station in the Gulf of Oman in company with eight US destroyers, most likely two nuclear attack submarines not far away and many, many aircraft aboard. In the Eastern Mediterranean, America has a single...

dan_s

This is also good news: Will Hickey and Guy Oliphint, Chief Financial Officer, are scheduled to present at the Barclays CEO Energy-Power Conference in New York City, New York on September 3, 2024 at 12:40 p.m. Eastern Time. The live webcast and presentation materials used at the conference will be a...

dan_s

Even if WTI were to average $70/bbl in 2025, PR should generate over $1.3 billion of free cash flow next year. The $0.60 based dividends would add up to ~$0.5 billion. Dividend coverage is very good, and I like the more aggressive stock buyback. PR is starting to get the love from the Wall Street Ga...

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Trading Economics: WTI Oil "WTI crude oil futures fell below the $71 per barrel mark on Tuesday, the lowest since the start of January as muted demand magnified the impact of relatively ample supply. New data from China exacerbated concerns that economic growth from one of the world’s largest o...

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This morning, we are publishing updated profiles on REI and GRNT. REI is one of the top performing stocks in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio, up 24% YTD based on last Friday's closing price of $1.85. It is down this morning because of the dip in the WTI oil price. Ring does have some oil hedges in pl...

dan_s

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=koTRKuyLJ9s

dan_s

We've been told a global recession is just around the corner for over three years. FEAR of a recession is not a real recession. Post Labor Day there is a short period of lower oil demand, but it will pick back up as the temperature goes down. Our High Yield Income Portfolio is the safest of the thre...

dan_s

As long as human population continues to grow (has been growing by ~200,000 PER DAY), demand for energy (all forms) will continue grow. Fossil fuels (oil, gas and coal) will continue to be over 75% of primary energy for decades to come. OilPrice.com: Energy Majors Say Oil is Here to Stay By Felicit...

dan_s

U.S. oil production peaked in December, 2023 and has yet to return to that level in 2024 U.S. Crude Oil Production barrels per day. There is a lag in actual production data because it comes from state reports. DEC 2023: 13,308,000 JAN 2024: 12,554,000 < Winter weather related well shut-ins FEB 2024:...

dan_s

Keith's Master Class on the Global Oil Market: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghwqAImn-po

It is an hour long. Well worth the time.

dan_s

I may be wrong, but I think that EIA goes back and changes their weekly numbers after they get the 914 report. I know that IEA does go back and adjust their previous forecasts. Regardless, the point is that U.S. oil production is flat and unlikely to go higher at the current active drilling rig coun...

dan_s

I spent most of my weekend updating all 16 forecast/valuation models using my new oil & gas price deck. All 16 companies reported solid Q2 results and most of them beat my forecasts. All of them are generating strong operating cash flow. All of them are free cash flow positive and all but Vital ...

dan_s

I am lowering the 2H 2024 oil & gas prices in my models. All 16 forecast models have now been updated. WTI oil Q3: lowered by $5 to $75/bbl Q4: lowered by $2.50 to $80/bbl HH ngas Q3: lowered by $0.25 to $2.00 Q4: lowered by $0.25 to $2.50 No change for 2025 forecasts. I'm using $80 WTI and $3.5...

dan_s

This weekend I will be updating all of the Sweet 16 stock valuation models using my lowered oil & gas price deck for 2H 2024. The FANG and PR models have already been updated and posted to the EPG website. The valuations should not change too much since I had large "cushions" in my Adj...

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OilPrice.com: U.S. Oil, Gas Drilling Activity. Oil Production Slip By Julianne Geiger - Aug 30, 2024, 12:11 PM CDT The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell again this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday. The total rig count fell...

dan_s

U.S. oil production still down over 100,000 bpd YTD.

IEA keeps telling everyone that U.S. oil production is going up. They list the U.S. as the #1 growth area for Non-OPEC+ oil production growth in 2024.

dan_s

I spent the afternoon looking closely at SOI, which is the top performing stock in our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio. Our updated profile went out to all EPG members this afternoon at 4pm CT. I urge all of you to go to our website and download my updated forecast/valuation model. The Company provided m...

dan_s

Based on my Scientific Wild Ass Guess ("SWAG"), over the last 11 weeks of the refill season that ends on November 8 this year, the weekly builds will total 270 Bcf below the 5-year average. That will leave a surplus to the 5-year average of just 91 BCF heading into the winter heating seaso...

dan_s

Keep in mind that: > OPEC+ oil output hike will not start until October. > Libya's problems and some members cutting production will likely offset other members increases. > U.S. and OECD petroleum inventories are below normal for this time of year. > U.S. oil production has declined YTD. > If Trum...

dan_s

I have lowered the oil & gas prices used in my 2H 2024 forecasts as follows: Q3 2024: WTI oil from $80 to $75 and HH natural gas from $2.25 to $2.00 Q4 2024: WTI oil from $82.50 to $80 and HH natural gas from $2.75 to $2.50 For 2025 my oil and ngas prices remain at $80 WTI and $3.50 for HH ngas....

dan_s

Comments below are from Keith Kohl's "Energy Investor" newsletter, which I have been getting for over ten years. Permian Resources Corp. is an independent oil and gas company that is focused on the acquisition, optimization, and development of high-return oil and natural gas properties. Th...

dan_s

FANG and EOG are at the top of my "Elite Eight", a subset of our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio. They both have outstanding Tier One leasehold with thousands of low-risk development drilling locations that only need $40 oil prices to be economical. Size matters in this business. “We are clearl...

dan_s

Here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6SM70iYv_CU

Texas is blessed to have abundant natural gas reserves. We should stop building windmills and solar farms. We should be building natural gas fired power plants in West Texas and near our major cities.

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