FXEN

[jim]

good, perhaps great results released today on new poland gas well. even after huge runup today, and for past two weeks, using their "stabilized" production forecasts (24mmcf/d for two newest gas wells vs. much larger IP rates--using delek's converter, new well IP'ed at 20K BOED), and at thermal parity, I've got them at 6,550 BOED total production, EV (mc - positive working capital + ltd) = $337.7M, and so EV/price to flowing barrel of oil at $51,000. for comparision, my yesterday's number for GST, using forecasted 2014 production from EPG, was $70k/FBO. (Bakken companies typically way over $100k...)

[dan_s]

Jim: Be careful with FXEN. Management has a long history of "over-promising and under-delivering". It could be different this time, but I used to follow it for years and they never delivered. That said, the share price can make some big runs on news of test results like this.

[wilmawatts]

I like what I see. But I have heard this song before by the same folks singing the current tune. Maybe this time things will turn out differently for shareholders.

[dan_s]

The questions someone needs to ask FXEN are:
> How long before those big wells are connected to sales?
> Will a large processing facility have to be built and how long will it take to build and at what cost? < Probably the case
> Will the wells be able to produce at anything close to their test results.

I can tell you from personal experience (I once owned a working interest in a gas well that tested at over 3 MMcfpd and declined to zero after being on-line for three months), that test rates and production rates are vastly different.

That said, this may be the Big One for FXEN that makes everyone rich.