DOWNGRADE: Triangle Petroleum (TPLM) downgraded by Global Hunter Securities from Buy to Neutral.
BRIEFING.COM 8:01 AM ET 6/3/2014
TPLM downgrade?
Re: TPLM downgrade?
Weird that this came out before next week's Q1 earnings report. Q1 production should be around 8,200 boepd, about 1,000 boepd higher than Q4. Weather always impacts first quarter results. If production is a bit lower due to delayed completions I don't care. Weather related delays are just timing differences and they catch up in the summer up in North Dakota.
As long as the company sticks with their production guidance of 9,500 to 10,500 boepd for this fiscal year (ends January 31, 2015), then I am still very high on TPLM.
We will know more next week.
As long as the company sticks with their production guidance of 9,500 to 10,500 boepd for this fiscal year (ends January 31, 2015), then I am still very high on TPLM.
We will know more next week.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: TPLM downgrade?
From GHS report:
Triangle Petroleum Corp. (TPLM; lowering to Neutral from Buy, maintaining $10 price target): We are downgrading TPLM to Neutral from Buy after the stock has doubled over the last year, reaching our NAV-based price target of $10/share. Furthermore, we believe TPLM will have to show that its acreage is capable of generating top-quartile returns in the Bakken in order to warrant upside beyond our price target. On this front, TPLM's very best quarter of well results on record has yielded 90-day cumulative rates of 55.5 Mboe, which is lower than EOG's Q4:13 average 90-day cum's of 127 Mboe in its Core and Antelope Fields (not all Bakken is created equal). Additionally, TPLM's average well cost in 2013 of $12.38MM ($348MM for 28.1 net wells and excludes the money paid to its Rock Pile subsidiary) tells us that the economics will quickly become marginal with a pullback in crude prices (at 10% discount to our long-term $82 WTI price and 575 Mboe EUR, we see project IRRs of ~15%). Please click herefor our updated TPLM estimates.
Triangle Petroleum Corp. (TPLM; lowering to Neutral from Buy, maintaining $10 price target): We are downgrading TPLM to Neutral from Buy after the stock has doubled over the last year, reaching our NAV-based price target of $10/share. Furthermore, we believe TPLM will have to show that its acreage is capable of generating top-quartile returns in the Bakken in order to warrant upside beyond our price target. On this front, TPLM's very best quarter of well results on record has yielded 90-day cumulative rates of 55.5 Mboe, which is lower than EOG's Q4:13 average 90-day cum's of 127 Mboe in its Core and Antelope Fields (not all Bakken is created equal). Additionally, TPLM's average well cost in 2013 of $12.38MM ($348MM for 28.1 net wells and excludes the money paid to its Rock Pile subsidiary) tells us that the economics will quickly become marginal with a pullback in crude prices (at 10% discount to our long-term $82 WTI price and 575 Mboe EUR, we see project IRRs of ~15%). Please click herefor our updated TPLM estimates.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group