OAS

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dan_s
Posts: 37277
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

OAS

Post by dan_s »

I double checked my forecast model and I am sticking with my valuation of $71/share. Actually, a $0.50/share increase from the last newsletter. OAS is going to report outstanding 2nd half results as they complete a lot more well with advanced completion methods.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
setliff
Posts: 1823
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: OAS

Post by setliff »

Analyst Actions: Oasis Petroleum Upgraded to Strong Buy at Raymond James, PT Raised $7 to $70; Shares Up 2% Pre Bell
MIDNIGHT TRADER 7:52 AM ET 6/30/2014
08:52 AM EDT, 06/30/2014 (MT Newswires) -- Analysts at Raymond James have upgraded their coverage of exploration and production company Oasis Petroleum(OAS) to a strong buy rating from outperform.

The firm also boosted its price target on the stock to $70 from $63 a share.

In today's pre-market session, shares of OAS are up 2.1% to $55.99, and trade within a 52-week spread of $37.86 - $57.33.

Price: 55.99, Change: +1.15, Percent Change: +2.10
setliff
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Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: OAS

Post by setliff »

COVERAGE REITERATED: Oasis Petroleum (OAS) reiterated by Topeka Capital Markets. Reiterated rating Buy.
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: OAS

Post by dan_s »

Always nice to see other analysts agree with me. OAS is setting up for very strong production growth in the 3rd quarter.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: OAS

Post by dan_s »

OAS-- Oasis Petroleum price target raised to $64 from $55 at Canaccord
Canaccord raised its price target on Oasis Petroleum to $64 from $55 to reflect its leadership in bringing down costs, its status as one of the largest players in the Williston Basin, and its solid execution. The firm has a Buy rating on the stock. :theflyonthewall.com
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
ghrcap
Posts: 338
Joined: Tue Oct 05, 2010 8:11 am

Re: OAS

Post by ghrcap »

A question to be asked of all the Bakken players now is how much gas are they flaring and can they meet North Dakota's tough new standards this fall?
http://www.thebakken.com/articles/702/n ... as-flaring
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: OAS

Post by dan_s »

I don't think this will be a problem for the Bakken companies we have in the Sweet 16. North Dakota is a very industry friendly state. They will work closely with the producers. Restricting production will also reduce the state's tax revenues. OAS already has a lot of their wells connected to gas sales lines. - Dan
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All Bakken and Three Forks wells starting Oct. 1 are subject to production restrictions if they are flaring more than the gas capture goal at that time, Helms said. The goal on Oct. 1 for gas capture is 76 percent. According to the Department of Mineral Resources, if a gas capture percentage is not met, oil production at the well will be restricted to 200 barrels of oil per day, “if at least 60 percent of the monthly volume of associated gas produced from the well is captured, otherwise oil production from such wells shall not exceed 100 barrels of oil per day.”

In addition, gas flaring will not be permitted if the North Dakota Department of Health determines that the activity is violating the state’s air pollution control rules, which could trigger further production restrictions.

Last March, the Industrial Commission approved a six-step policy aimed at reducing flaring. Today’s approval of the order is the final regulatory piece to the flaring reduction policy approved by the commission.

Oil producers will be required to have a gas capture plan (GCP). This plan details how much natural gas an operator anticipates producing from a well, the method of delivering the natural gas to a processor, and where the natural gas will be processed. Operators failing to comply with a GCP, as well as flaring reduction targets, may face the production restrictions.

“This is just the beginning of a new era in North Dakota," said Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem. "More than 200 pages of comments as well as testimony received at the April 22 hearing helped guide the Commission to craft a policy to better manage this valuable resource.”

Helms said that most states employ different versions of the same tools to reduce gas flaring, but when the commission last fall challenged the petroleum industry to come up with a different approach, it produced action items to rewrite the flaring restrictions.

“The overarching goal is to reduce the number of wells flared and the amount of gas flared,” Helms said. “With the help of the commission, we won’t just see percentage of gas flaring go down, but the volume go down as well.”

Helms said that while there is flexibility in the policy to take problems such as right of way delays and topography into account, producers shouldn’t expect as many exemptions as they once received.

“Our intention is to make it stick and not grant exemptions,” he said. “I have my marching orders.”

Currently, Helms said that most producers are already in compliance with the new regulations and that many are close. However, there are a handful in need of well site assistance.

The new regulations, he noted, “provide an extremely strong financial incentive to contract with a gas gatherer.”

A producer that doesn’t comply with the flaring regulations will first have its well production restricted. If it continues to ignore regulations, Helms said it would be subject to penalties and fines. He estimated that the potential impact on North Dakota’s oil production is less than 4-5 percent.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Jacobpilot

Re: OAS

Post by Jacobpilot »

Dan, will these rules on capturing NG help any particular MLP's that you follow?
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: OAS

Post by dan_s »

Not really. This is not that big of a deal. Remember, the E&P companies don't want to flare the gas. That is just burning up money.

This stuff is more for political reasons to appease those bitching about the flaring. ND is very friendly to the oil & gas industry and they don't want to do anything that slows down the economic boom create by the Bakken.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
wturk
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Joined: Sun May 02, 2010 8:26 pm

Re: OAS

Post by wturk »

Any idea as to why OAS is selling off strongly this morning.
setliff
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Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: OAS

Post by setliff »

I think it is CL drop, but volume worried me. but oas is joined by sn, crk, cpe, et al
mikelp
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Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:15 am

Re: OAS

Post by mikelp »

entire sector is down, WTI dipping below $100 will shake out the weak hands
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: OAS

Post by dan_s »

Everything is red this morning as WTI dips under $100. There is nothing specific to OAS.

Charts show support for WTI at $99 and Very Strong support at $95. All of my forecast models assume $95 WTI.

Hang tough, OAS is going to generate very strong production growth from June to year-end. Lots of high rate wells being completed this summer.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: OAS

Post by dan_s »

Janet Yellen saying Fed will stop buying bonds in October is shaking up the market. Isn't a good sign for the economy that the Fed thinks they can stop the buying?
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Laurin_DE
Posts: 70
Joined: Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:18 am
Location: Bremen, Germany

Re: OAS

Post by Laurin_DE »

Dan,
did Oasis's management ever indicate their position with regard to being bought?
would a merger of Oasis and Triangle (or a buyout of the latter by the former) make sense and would Oasis have the financial strength to acquire Triangle in an attempt to stay independent?
Thanks.
setliff
Posts: 1823
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: OAS

Post by setliff »

from seeking alpha--

Oasis Petroleum upgraded to Buy at Global Hunter • 12:56 PM

•Oasis Petroleum (OAS +2.4%) is upgraded to Buy from Hold with a $65 price target, up from $54, at Global Hunter, which sees OAS as a core pure-play Bakken holding that should deliver 30%-plus production growth over the next two years that boasts an adept management team with a history of strong execution.

•The firm believes the Bakken is still undergoing an inflection point in terms of geologic understanding that should continue to drive improvements in drilling and completion techniques, yet OAS shares have underperformed other Bakken operators YTD.
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: OAS

Post by dan_s »

OAS production should be up 40% YOY in 2014
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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