Working gas in storage was 3,480 Bcf as of Friday, October 24, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net increase of 87 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 294 Bcf less than last year at this time and 310 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,790 Bcf.
There should be three more weeks of storage builds, with the first draw from storage expected on November 20.
We will begin the winter heating season with approximately 250 Bcf less gas in storage this year than last year.
Last year we started with 3,834 Bcf in storage.
Where natural gas prices go from here is all up to Old Man Winter and the NYMEX Traders.
Natural Gas Update - October 30
Natural Gas Update - October 30
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Update - October 30
Early price forecast from EnerCom:
The EnerCom model combines 18 different variables to determine future gas prices. The average price for October through December in 2014 is expected to average $4.45/MMBtu, compared to 2013’s estimate of $4.15/MMBtu. Year-end 2014 prices are forecasted at $4.58, compared to 2013’s end price of $4.40.
In January through March, 2015 prices are projected at a midpoint of $4.22/MMBtu, with prices dropping below the $4.00 threshold by mid-March. Prices were consistently above that level in 2014 as gas inventories were limited, averaging a $4.68/MMbtu price in the three month span.
The Wall Street Journal expects gas prices to remain relatively low in its October 23 article titled “Natural-Gas Bulls: Better Luck Next Year.” Late 2015 will be a different situation, according to The Journal, due to coal-fired power plant shutdowns stemming from stricter emissions imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency. A total of 60% of current coal-fired plants are expected to be decommissioned by 2020. Although the article doesn’t believe a jump in gas prices is guaranteed, the seasonal swings will be more extreme due to the increasing dependence of the plentiful resource.
The EnerCom model combines 18 different variables to determine future gas prices. The average price for October through December in 2014 is expected to average $4.45/MMBtu, compared to 2013’s estimate of $4.15/MMBtu. Year-end 2014 prices are forecasted at $4.58, compared to 2013’s end price of $4.40.
In January through March, 2015 prices are projected at a midpoint of $4.22/MMBtu, with prices dropping below the $4.00 threshold by mid-March. Prices were consistently above that level in 2014 as gas inventories were limited, averaging a $4.68/MMbtu price in the three month span.
The Wall Street Journal expects gas prices to remain relatively low in its October 23 article titled “Natural-Gas Bulls: Better Luck Next Year.” Late 2015 will be a different situation, according to The Journal, due to coal-fired power plant shutdowns stemming from stricter emissions imposed by the Environmental Protection Agency. A total of 60% of current coal-fired plants are expected to be decommissioned by 2020. Although the article doesn’t believe a jump in gas prices is guaranteed, the seasonal swings will be more extreme due to the increasing dependence of the plentiful resource.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Update - October 30
snow predicted this weekend for the southern Appalachians from VA to the Smokies. East coast and Midwest getting an early taste of the Arctic this weekend
Re: Natural Gas Update - October 30
I check weather forecasts each morning. This is the first time I noticed a lot of lows in the 20s.
We should see a steady decline in the injections to storage, which should push gas of $4.00 very soon. First draws from storage are usually the 3rd week of November.
I just looked at last year's weekly storage reports and a big draw from storage (162 Bcf) was reported the last week of November. If that repeats this year, I think Ngas will jump over $5.00 by Christmas. Normally, triple digit draws do not start until mid-December.
We should see a steady decline in the injections to storage, which should push gas of $4.00 very soon. First draws from storage are usually the 3rd week of November.
I just looked at last year's weekly storage reports and a big draw from storage (162 Bcf) was reported the last week of November. If that repeats this year, I think Ngas will jump over $5.00 by Christmas. Normally, triple digit draws do not start until mid-December.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Natural Gas Update - October 30
yes , no shorts on the tee box tomorrow morning in North Texas
predicted to upper 30s
predicted to upper 30s
-
bearcatbob
Re: Natural Gas Update - October 30
I played 3 times this week in NE Ohio. Monday was a cold start and we had a frost delay. However, as the day wore on the layers came off as it became a really nice day. Wednesday started cool and stayed cool. Thursday was similar.par_putt wrote:yes , no shorts on the tee box tomorrow morning in North Texas
predicted to upper 30s
It might snow here tonight for the first time this season. Whatever, there will no longer be early tee times so that we can avoid morning frost delays.
Bob