Weather can make a big difference
Weather can make a big difference
Dr. Joe Bastardi is now saying that that the 45-day period from mid-November to year-end could be the coldest 45-day period for the eastern 2/3 of the U.S. in over 50 years. Listen to his weekend update: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-sum ... ber-8-2014
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Weather can make a big difference
A KIP Energy Report........................... --
Energy
Last updated: November 7, 2014
By Jim Patterson
Natural gas markets are finally feeling the effects of colder weather. Though the amount of gas in storage continues to rise, thanks to strong production, gas futures prices jumped this week as the forecast turned chilly across much of the country. At $4.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the benchmark price of natural gas is up more than 40 cents from a week ago, and squarely back in our expected trading range of $4 to $4.50.
We look for natural gas to fluctuate in that range for much of the autumn, driven up and down by changes in the thermometer. By the end of winter, look for the price to edge a bit higher, toward $4.75 per MMBtu, as supplies in storage are drawn down.
But the nippy temperatures offer little help for oil prices, which continued to decline this week. At $78.54 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the U.S. crude benchmark — is off again from a week ago. Ample global production, tepid demand and a strong U.S. dollar are all conspiring to keep oil prices low. A dip to about $75 per barrel in coming weeks can’t be ruled out, though we look for WTI to begin trending upwards later this fall and trade in a range from $85 to $90 a barrel by February.
Cheaper oil means cheaper gasoline. The national average price of regular unleaded slipped to $2.95 per gallon, off a nickel from a week ago and hitting its lowest point since late 2010. Drivers may even see the national average move a bit lower, to about $2.90 per gallon in the next few weeks. And a significant rebound is unlikely this fall, so figure on prices staying close to $3 per gallon through year-end: Savings at the pump will give shoppers a little extra to spend this holiday season.
But diesel prices appear poised to edge up a bit, now that demand for chemically similar heating oil is rising. The national average price figures to gain a penny or two from its current level of $3.61 per gallon.
Energy
Last updated: November 7, 2014
By Jim Patterson
Natural gas markets are finally feeling the effects of colder weather. Though the amount of gas in storage continues to rise, thanks to strong production, gas futures prices jumped this week as the forecast turned chilly across much of the country. At $4.37 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), the benchmark price of natural gas is up more than 40 cents from a week ago, and squarely back in our expected trading range of $4 to $4.50.
We look for natural gas to fluctuate in that range for much of the autumn, driven up and down by changes in the thermometer. By the end of winter, look for the price to edge a bit higher, toward $4.75 per MMBtu, as supplies in storage are drawn down.
But the nippy temperatures offer little help for oil prices, which continued to decline this week. At $78.54 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) — the U.S. crude benchmark — is off again from a week ago. Ample global production, tepid demand and a strong U.S. dollar are all conspiring to keep oil prices low. A dip to about $75 per barrel in coming weeks can’t be ruled out, though we look for WTI to begin trending upwards later this fall and trade in a range from $85 to $90 a barrel by February.
Cheaper oil means cheaper gasoline. The national average price of regular unleaded slipped to $2.95 per gallon, off a nickel from a week ago and hitting its lowest point since late 2010. Drivers may even see the national average move a bit lower, to about $2.90 per gallon in the next few weeks. And a significant rebound is unlikely this fall, so figure on prices staying close to $3 per gallon through year-end: Savings at the pump will give shoppers a little extra to spend this holiday season.
But diesel prices appear poised to edge up a bit, now that demand for chemically similar heating oil is rising. The national average price figures to gain a penny or two from its current level of $3.61 per gallon.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Weather can make a big difference
January in November: Arctic blast to hit USA
Whether or not it's dubbed a polar vortex, icy cold will spread across much of the central and eastern USA by next week, bringing temperatures more typical of January than November.
The onslaught will be fueled in part by remnants of Typhoon Nuri, which will wallop Alaska's Aleutian Islands with furious, hurricane-force winds and mammoth 50-foot waves over the weekend.
The system is expected to push cold air into much of the continental USA next week, said Bob Oravec, National Weather Service forecaster.
"In brief, when a typhoon curves away from Asia, it causes the jet stream farther to the east across the Pacific and into North America to buckle days later," said Brett Anderson, an AccuWeather meteorologist.
That contorted jet stream can lead to storms and outbreaks of cold air, as well as surges of warmth, throughout the nation.
Snow will accompany the frigid air in areas including the northern Rockies, northern Plains and upper Midwest. Milwaukee and Grand Rapids, Mich., could be the cities that see the most snow, the Weather Channel predicts.
"It looks like winter's starting early," Oravec said.
continue......
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... /18630885/
Whether or not it's dubbed a polar vortex, icy cold will spread across much of the central and eastern USA by next week, bringing temperatures more typical of January than November.
The onslaught will be fueled in part by remnants of Typhoon Nuri, which will wallop Alaska's Aleutian Islands with furious, hurricane-force winds and mammoth 50-foot waves over the weekend.
The system is expected to push cold air into much of the continental USA next week, said Bob Oravec, National Weather Service forecaster.
"In brief, when a typhoon curves away from Asia, it causes the jet stream farther to the east across the Pacific and into North America to buckle days later," said Brett Anderson, an AccuWeather meteorologist.
That contorted jet stream can lead to storms and outbreaks of cold air, as well as surges of warmth, throughout the nation.
Snow will accompany the frigid air in areas including the northern Rockies, northern Plains and upper Midwest. Milwaukee and Grand Rapids, Mich., could be the cities that see the most snow, the Weather Channel predicts.
"It looks like winter's starting early," Oravec said.
continue......
http://www.usatoday.com/story/weather/2 ... /18630885/
Re: Weather can make a big difference
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Weather can make a big difference
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group