Sweet 16 Update - November 16

[dan_s]

The Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio spreadsheet has been updated and posted to the website:
> Tab 1 of the spreadsheet is a summary of the EPS and CFPS forecasts for each company,
> Tab 2 shows my Fair Value Estimate compared to First Call's Price Target for each company as of 11-15-2014

All of my forecasts and valuations now assume $80/bbl WTI and $3.50/mcf natural gas for all future periods (adjusted for individual company hedges and regional adjustments. NOTE: Even at those lower prices ALL of the Sweet 16 should be profitable in 2015.

The next edition of The View From Houston newsletter will be sent to you via e-mail Monday morning. There is a lot more about the Sweet 16 in the newsletter.

[letitfly]

Dan

In the newsletter, will you address which companies are in the strongest financial condition to weather the oil price decline, and which companies are more vulnerable due to outstanding debt?

Thanks

[dan_s]

See the "Elite Eight" in the last newsletter. Those companies will do very well, even if oil stays near the current level.

Actually, all of the Sweet 16 will survive even if WTI stays in the $75-$80 range forever.

On Tab 1 of the Sweet 16 Spreadsheet (which I update each weekend), you can see how much debt each company has. One think that is very important for investors to understand is that the "Assets" shown on the balance sheet are at historical cost. The value of an E&P company's assets are usually much higher, therefore traditional balances sheet ratios are almost meaningless for an E&P company.

[letitfly]

Thanks, I read the elite 8, but was just curious if there was more to add. Thanks

[ghrcap]

Where is the Elite Eight discussed? The last archived newsletter I can find is #97 from the end of October.

[dan_s]

You should have received newsletter #98 via e-mail. It went out November 17.

If you are not getting the newsletters via e-mail then you need to log onto the website and update your profile.

[dan_s]

The reason we wait a few days before posting the newsletter to the website is because I know some members have "shared" their log-in info with non-members. I want our "real members" to have a chance to read the newsletter before the "cheaters" get it. - Dan

[davidc257]

Hi

I do not recall having received newsletter #98 by e-mail and I believe my profile information is updated. Maybe it was inadvertently tossed but could you check that I receive future newsletters by e-mail? Thank you.

David

[dan_s]

David: Check that your SPAM filter is not blocking our newsletter e-mail.

If your e-mail address is correct in your profile, there is nothing else we can do.

Send me an e-mail at dmsteffens@comcast.net and I will forward the newsletter.