KOG getting ahead of it self???

[bobs]

Dan...thanks for TGA and KOG
LEI has also been a big winner for me although it never officially got your blessing.

[dan_s]

In light of the recent Bakken deals by Hess and Williams, KOG looks reasonably priced. Today's big volume does look weird considering the stock offering and oil being down.

It never hurts to take a large gain. Don't be a pig.

The more I dig into CLR the more I like it. If you want a lot of exposure to the Bakken take a good look at CLR.

DNR still has some upside and PetroBank will soon become almost a pure play on the Bakken.

[setliff]

re kog's performance today on huge volume, i think many big money guys figured out that they could really drill baby drill with that $100+m they are going to get from the offering. some think they may be the next bexp.

love it!

[dan_s]

HUGE volume today. There is something going on with this one. Can all this buying be from funds thinking that KOG is the next BEXP?

[prince_jake_33]

What has happend with the 25 million shares. I dont know much about this situation but could the 25 million shares have been bought by a company looking to buy KOG. The shares have not come on the market. Why wouldnt they come on the market if purchased at 5.5$ and can be sold at 6.34$?

[prince_jake_33]

What: Kodiak Oil & Gas (AMEX: KOG) shares jumped again today, rising 10% on firm news about the company's secondary offering.

So what: With the market's positive reaction on Tuesday to an announced offering of 20 million shares, the company decided to up the offering to 25 million shares. If there's money to be had, they might as well take it.

Now what: Priced at $5.50, the market is already giving initial buyers a nice profit at a current price at $6.32. The closing date is expected to be Dec. 14, and unless the stock collapses before then, I think we can assume the underwriters will purchase the optional 3.75 million shares -- bringing total proceeds to $158 million before fees. With this kind of a reaction to a secondary offering, the sky looks to be the limit for Kodiak.

Interested in more info on Kodiak Oil & Gas? Add it to your watchlist.

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.Fool contributor Travis Hoium does not have a position in any company mentioned. You can follow Travis on Twitter at @FlushDrawFool, check out his personal stock holdings or follow his CAPS picks at TMFFlushDraw.

[setliff]

this outfit doesn't think so

Analyst Actions: Wells Fargo Initiates Kodiak Oil & Gas at Outperform - Shares Flat Before the Open 12/21 07:02 AM

08:02 AM Eastern Standard Time, 12/21/2010 (MidnightTrader) -- Shares of Kodiak Oil & Gas (KOG:$6.5000,$0.0000,0.00%) are flat in pre-market trading as the company is reportedly initiated with an Outperform at Wells Fargo. The firm has a valuation range of $7 to $8. Price: 6.50, Change: 0, Percent Change: 0
http://www.midnighttrader.com

[dan_s]

Kodiak is now above my "Fair Value" estimate of $6.50 but there are a few things to keep in mind.
> KOG is heavily weighted to oil
> KOG is in the middle of the red hot Bakken, so a prime takeover target
> My Fair Value estimates assume $80/bbl oil for all of 2011. If I raise the price of oil to $90/bbl in my model (the NYMEX price, not what KOG is getting in North Dakota, which is much less), then my Fair Value estimate for Kodiak goes to $7.40.

My forecast model assumes Kodiak will exit 2010 at 3,000 Bopd. 3rd quarter actual production was 1,378 boepd but the company has several high rate wells coming on in the 4th quarter so they could top this exit rate.

If you look at my forecast model you will see Kodiak with steady production growth going forward. An accelerated drilling program could top what I'm forecasting.

I don't think KOG is getting ahead of itself yet. A premium to my Fair Value price is definitely reasonable for one with so much going for it.

[dan_s]

New report on KOG
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Kodiak-Oi ... l?x=0&.v=1