IEA Oil Market Report - July 10

[dan_s]

The International Energy Agency published their "Oil Market Report" for July today. This report comes out once a month. IMO it tends to be bearish and I believe (and Raymond James analysts agree) their forecasting models are a flawed by putting too much weight on historical trends.

Report: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

They are sticking with their forecast that global demand for refined products will increase by 2 million bbls per day from 2Q 2015 to 4Q 2015. In my opinion, their forecast of 1.2 million barrel year-over-year demand growth for 2016 is a wild ass guess. In the 2008/2009 oil price cycle, IEA grossly underestimated demand growth in response to lower fuel prices.

Iran Update: http://www.channel3000.com/news/politic ... d/34091430

Maybe the negotiators first need to define the word "Deadline". Now there is no chance of the sanctions against Iran being lifted this summer. Assuming Kerry can get a deal signed, Congress now has 60-days to review it and they will rip it to shreds. The Iranians are playing us as they continue to enrich uranium. Even if a miracle happens and we get an acceptable deal signed this year, it will take up to a year for Iran to ramp up production. The FEAR that Iran is going to dump a bunch of oil onto the market is grossly overblown.