Raymond James take on IEA report (July 10)

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Raymond James estimates U.S. production has been declining since March

The oil market may be tighter than many realize, according to analysis from Marshall Adkins and researchers at Raymond James. In a follow up to the research they did on the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 1.2 MMBOPD of missing production, Adkins and his team delved into the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) own balancing, or plug, number.

While the IEA’s plug number likely stems from chronic underreporting of demand, the EIA’s data suggest that the U.S. agency is overstating the growth of oil supply in recent months. Historically, the EIA has understated U.S. supply growth to the tune of about 140 MBOPD, but since March, the EIA’s plug number on its weekly inventory report has gone from a positive 362 MBOPD in Q1’15 to a negative 113 MBOPD in June.

“Put simply,” says Adkins, this “says U.S. oil supply is already rolling over… If we add back the EIA plug number to the recently reported weekly supply data [then] U.S. oil supply probably started rolling over in March.”

More: http://www.oilandgas360.com/has-u-s-oil ... a-26401157