Oil Prices: Where do we go from here?

[dan_s]

Video: http://www.digitalgate.tv/Sample_EPG-4t ... r2015.html

Cut and paste the link into your browser to see my outlook for oil prices.

Here is what other analysts are predicting for 2016:

Oil ___ Ngas

$50.00 $2.85 < Median prices of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg

$80.00/bbl for WTI by year-end says Bryon Pope, Managing Director at energy investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. He believes global supply/demand are much tighter than IEA.

$50.00 to $65.00 per bbl for WTI during the 2nd half says Bill Herbert, energy analyst at investment bank Simmons & Company International.

All analysts see much higher oil prices in 2017, as it is becoming clear that the global oil markets are well into the re-balancing process.

Natural gas trades on regional markets. First quarter weather will be the most significant impact on natural gas and NGL prices for 2016.

[k1f]

Russian oil output hits 10.8 mm bp/d:

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOil ... 3720160102

Iraq exported one billion barrels of oil in 2015 or 2.7 mm bp/d.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... il-in-2015

[dan_s]

The world will consume over 35 billion barrels of refined hydrocarbon based fuels in 2016 and demand for fuels will accelerate in the 2nd half of the year, just like it does each year.
See chart at: https://www.iea.org/oilmarketreport/omrpublic/

This is an industry with VERY BIG numbers.

[dan_s]

Obviously, there is a very wide difference of opinions on where oil & gas prices are going to wind up in 2016.

For example: I am working on EOG today. They are totally unhedged going into 2016 because they think commodity prices are going higher.

To see the difference of opinions on Wall Street, look at the gap in the earnings per share forecasts for EOG submitted to First Call.
High end: EPS of $2.83 < To get this, I had to use $70/bbl for oil and $2.75/mcf for gas.
Low end: EPS of -$2.09 < To get this, I had to take commodity prices to $35/bbl for oil and $2.00/mcf for gas ALL YEAR

EOG should generate $3.5 to $4.0 Billion of cash flow from operations in 2016 and they should be able to maintain their current level of production at that level of spending. This company holds some of the most valuable real estate on the planet.

REMINDER: All of the forecast models on the EPG website are "macro driven" Excel spreadsheets. If you download them to Excel all you need to do is change the commodity prices for the forecast periods at the bottom and the spreadsheet will recalculate EPS, CFPS and stock valuation automatically. Its magic!

[dan_s]

WTI is pointing toward a retest of its December 24 recovery-rally high at $38.28, which, if hurdled, will morph the entire December price action into a bottom-like accumulation pattern with an initial upside projection to the $41.00 area.

At this point, only a sharp downside reversal that breaks $36.66 will compromise the developing set up.