February turning VERY COLD in U.S.

[dan_s]

You should all listen to what Joe Bastardi says on his 1/29 update at http://www.weatherbell.com/

This will help explain what I said in the EPG newsletter.

The next 5-6 days are going to be warmer than normal in the eastern half of the U.S. Then it is going to turn VERY COLD. It should remain extremely cold in the eastern U.S. through the end of February. This pattern is bullish for natural gas.

If the amount of natural gas in storage gets anywhere close to 2,000 Bcf by the end of February, that will be VERY BULLISH for gas prices because it will give us a chance of seeing storage back near the 5-year average in March. It should also give NGL prices a boost.

If the gas in storage gets back to normal + we already have declining gas production + we have gas exports going up = a tight gas market in the U.S.

History shows that Super El Nino winters can last well into April. If that happens, the storage refill season is shortened (another bullish point for gas).

[bearcatbob]

If I could have one energy board resolution it is that I would never invest in any extreme weather forecasts that disagree with official projections.

This freely available forecast is far more in line with what we are seeing in NE Ohio.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ons/30day/

[mkarpoff]

Still, it is pretty late in the day to expect $3 natgas.