Antero Resources (AR)

dan_s · Post by **dan_s** » Mon Feb 15, 2016 1:41 pm

I have updated my forecast model for Antero. It will be posted to the EPG website later today.

I have increased my valuation for AR to $33.15/share, compared to First Call's price target of $27.38.

Antero is going to report solid Q4 results, primarily because revenues will exceed the current First Call estimate. Realized prices for their natural gas and NGLs improved thanks to access to better markets.

Antero has more than 100% of their forecast natural gas production hedged for 2016 at $3.92/mmbtu, which means their realized prices for gas sold during the first half of 2016 should exceed $4.00/mcf. Their realized gas price for Q4 2015 was $4.40/mcf.

Antero has more than 20% annual production growth locked in for 2016 and 2017.

Thanks to the completion of several large midstream project, netback prices for gas and NGLs have increase for all of the Marcellus/Utica producers. This is good news for GPOR, GST, RRC and SWN.